Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation

Description

This edited volume offers a systematic account of the process of nuclear proliferation and its consequences, using quantitative research methods.

The real-world importance of nuclear weapons has led to the production of a voluminous scholarly literature on nuclear proliferation. Missing from this debate is an analysis of how states acquire nuclear weapons and a systematic empirical examination of how nuclear weapons may affect the security and the diplomacy of their possessors. The chapters in this book address these twin deficits by focusing on the causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation. We aim to accelerate the development of an empirical research agenda by employing robust research methods. Quantitative studies have been underrepresented in the expansive nuclear proliferation literature, which was historically dominated by comparative, historical, and qualitative analyses of the spread of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence. The volume brings together a new generation of scholars, advancing novel theoretical positions, and performing quantitative tests.

This volume makes theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions to the field by centering on two observations. First, whether states want nuclear weapons is irrelevant if they are unable to acquire them. The basic argument, grounded in the tradition of realist and security-based approaches to nuclear proliferation and nuclear deterrence, is that nuclear weapons on average and across a broad variety of indicators enhance the security and diplomatic influence of their possessors. Because states stand to gain by possessing nuclear weapons, the supply-side factors that enable nuclear development are among the most important determinants of nuclear proliferation. Second, nuclear weapons can potentially have a wide variety of effects on their possessors. Nuclear weapons may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, duration, and outcome of conflicts and may also affect a state’s diplomatic influence.

This book will be of much interest to students of arms control and nuclear proliferation, war and conflict studies, security studies and IR.

Contents

Part 1: Introduction 1. A Strategic Approach to Nuclear Proliferation Erik Gartzke, Matthew Kroenig and Robert Rauchhaus Part 2:The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation 2. Why Delegate for Non-proliferation? Explaining International Cooperation through the International Atomic Energy Agency Robert Brown 3. Membership Has Its Privileges: Conventional Arms and Influence within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Jennifer Erickson and Christopher Way 4. Importing the Bomb: Sensitive Nuclear Assistance and Nuclear Proliferation Matthew Kroenig 5. Taking a Walk on the Supply-Side: The Determinants of Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Matthew Fuhrmann 6. Nuclear Politics: The Political Decision to Acquire, Sustain or Discard a Nuclear Arsenal James Wirtz 7. A Bargaining Model of Nuclear Weapons Development and Disarmament Brett V. Benson and Quan Wen Part 3: The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation 8. Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes Erik Gartzke and Dong-Joon Jo 9. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter? Michael Horowitz 10. Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis: A Quantitative Approach Robert Rauchhaus 11. Winning with the Bomb Kyle Beardsley and Victor Asal 12. Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence Martin Hellman 13. Nuclear Disarmament: Can Risk Analysis Inform the Debate? Paul Nelson Part 4: Conclusion 14. The Perils of Predicting Proliferation Alexander Montgomery and Scott Sagan. Bibliography

Related Subjects

1. International Relations Theory
2. International Security
3. Security Studies - Pol & Intl Relns
4. War & Conflict Studies
5. Strategic Studies
6. International Organizations