list of figures page xi
list of tables xii
preface xiii
introduction xv
1 Growth and Development in History 1
Economic growth and economic development Growth and welfare – The measurement of economic growth – National income accounting: progress, promise, and pitfalls – The growth of income in modern times Economic growth before the mid-nineteenth century – The demographic factor and economic growth – Structural change in history – Structural change and sectoral productivity – The ‘services’ sector
2 Agriculture in Economic Growth 70
The role of agriculture – The contraction of the agricultural sector – Peasant artisans and peasant traders – Systems of land tenure and inheritance Agricultural productivity before the industrial age – Agricultural productivity in recent times – The sources of productivity improvement – Agricultural productivity and the growth of the economy
3 The Role of Capital 115
(a){emsp}investment and economic 115
growth
The unimportance of capital? – Some conceptual and measurement problems – Capital/output ratios, cross-country and over time – Investment ratios in theory and history – Investment: the key to the ‘industrial revolution’? – Savings and investment in pre-industrial societies
(b){emsp}the sources of capital 157
‘Direct’ financing and intermediation in history – The financing of the ‘industrial revolution’ – Financial intermediation in the industrial era – The sources of savings – ‘Involuntary’ saving
(c){emsp}the export of capital 178
The history of capital exports – Capital imports and growth – Capital exports and the lending country – The servicing of external debt – International capital movements and economic growth since 1945
4 Foreign Trade and Economic Growth 218
Trade, State and economy in early modern times – Do trade ratios decline? – Inter-country differences in trade ratios – ‘Vertical’ specialization before World War I – Trade as an ‘engine of growth’ – ‘Enclave’ economies – Trade in manufactures to 1913 – The ‘engine of growth’ reconsidered – Trade-constrained growth before 1913 The terms of trade of primary producers – New trends in twentieth-century trade Patterns of trade since World War II – Trade and growth: some concluding remarks
5 Technology and the ‘Residual’ 295
The ‘residual’ in economic growth – Allocation of resources – ‘Human capital’ and growth – Denison on the ‘partitioning’ of growth – The role of technological change – The evidence of patent statistics – The technological revolution? – The sources of invention Private and corporate invention – Invention, innovation and lags in technological advance – Inter-country ‘lags’ – Technical ‘improvements’ – Factor proportions and technical change ‘Managerial’ improvements and productivity – Pitfalls and possibilities in the historical analysis of productivity change
6 Some Theories of Growth and Development 378
Patterns and the unique event in history – Some limiting factors in historical generalization – Hollis B. Chenery’s ‘patterns of development’ – Legal and institutional change in economic development – Market imperfections and national economic integration – The trend of income distribution – ‘Labour surplus’ models – Patterns of industrial growth: Chenery and Hoffmann – ‘Stage’ i – ‘Take-off’ – Uniformity and diversity again – The limitations of economic analysis
KEY TO REFERENCES 447
INDEXES 452
Biography
J.D. Gould
