Envisioning the Future
Uncertainty
Natural Resources
Planning Is …
Organization of This Book
Take Aways
A Team Sport
Who Needs to Plan?
Planning is Done in Teams
What Does a Team Look Like?
Stages of a Team
Team Processes
Team Member Roles
What Does a Team Do?
Take Aways
The Planning Process
What Makes a Good Process?
Steps and Iterations
Examples of Planning Processes
Five by Two
Here’s How It Works
Risk-Informed Planning
What Do You Do with the Process?
Take Aways
Establish the Decision Context
Problem (and Opportunity) Identification
Without Condition Scenario
Objectives and Constraints
Decision Criteria
Information Needs
Uncertainty
Six Pieces of Paper
Take Aways
Addendum 1: Cause and Effect Diagrams and Problem Identification
Techniques
Gather Evidence
Introduction
Evidence-Based Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Evidence
Analysis
Scenarios
Take Aways
Formulate Solutions
Introduction
Pep Talk: Break Rules and Be Creative
The Language of Formulation
Formulation Strategies
Formulating for Uncertainty
Take Aways
Evaluate Solutions
What Is Evaluation, and Why Do We Do It?
How to Evaluate Plans
Take Aways
Compare Solutions
Comparing in Planning
How to Compare?
Take Aways
Make a Decision
The Decision
Who and How?
Making the Decision: Selecting a Solution
Risk-Based Decision-Making Strategies
Take Aways
Addendum 1: Analytical Hierarchy Process
Addendum 2: Decisions with Simple Paired Ranking
Public Involvement
Introduction
What Is It?
Stakeholders
Involve the Public
When to Do Public Involvement?
Take Aways
Tell Your Story
Elements of a Good Story
Write Simply
Graphics
Documentation
Take Aways
Uncertainty
Introduction
Distinguishing Knowledge Uncertainty and Variability?
Types of Uncertainty
Quantity Uncertainty
Sources of Uncertainty in Empirical Quantities
Uncertainty Causes Risk
Being Intentional about Uncertainty in the Planning Process
Take Aways
Scenario Planning
Introduction
Scenario-Planning Background
A Scenario-Planning Process
Addressing Uncertainty in the Without Condition(s)
Other Planning Tasks in Scenario Planning
Take Aways
Addendum: Drivers and Forces
Economics for Planners
Economic Principles
Cost Concepts
Uncertainty in Cost Estimates
Sorting Out the Costs of Multipurpose Plans
Types of Economic Analysis
Take Aways
Fast Planning
Introduction
Why Plan Faster?
Fast Track: A 30-Day Process
Five-Day Iteration
25 Days of Satisficing through Science
Risk Register
In the End
Take Aways
Addendum: SMART Planning
Practical Tips
Introduction
Seeing is Believing
Let’s Spend Some Time Together
The 72-Hour Iteration (3 in 30)
Take Time to Think
Listen to Your Elders
Lists Are Your Friends
Know the Relevant Policies
Be True to Your Profession
Gain Experience
Planning and Politics
Communicate and Network (P.S. Be Careful of What You Say)
Write As You Go
Take Aways
Index
Biography
Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University and an independent risk analysis consultant, but at heart he is a planner and educator. He began his planning career with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and has since worked with a number of U.S. and other government agencies as a planner, consultant, risk analyst, and trainer in a wide range of areas touching natural resources that include food and feed, natural disasters, public works infrastructure, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, biotechnology in crops, all manner of water resources, ecosystem services, and the like.
