Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics

INTRODUCTION

Societal Needs

Risk Analysis Methods

System Framework

Knowledge and Ignorance

Exercise Problems

RISK ANALYSIS METHODS

Introduction

Risk Terminology

Risk Assessment

Risk Management and Control

Risk Communication

Exercise Problems

SYSTEM DEFINITION AND STRUCTURE

Introduction

System Definition Models

Hierarchical Definitions of Systems

System Complexity

Exercise Problems

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

Introduction

Analytical Performance-Based Reliability Assessment

Empirical Reliability Analysis Using Life Data

Bayesian Methods

Reliability Analysis of Systems

Exercise Problems

FAILURE CONSEQUENCES AND SEVERITIES

Introduction

Analytical Consequence and Severity Assessment

Real Property Damage

Loss of Human Life

Injuries

Indirect Losses

Public Health and Ecological Damages

Exercise Problems

ENGINEERING ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

Introduction

Fundamental Economic Concepts

Cash Flow Diagrams

Interest Formulae

Economic Equivalence Involving Interest

Economic Equivalence Involving Inflation

Economic Analysis of Alternatives

Exercise Problems

RISK CONTROL METHODS

Introduction

Philosophies of Risk Control

Risk Aversion in Investment Decisions

Risk Homeostasis

Insurance for Loss Control and Risk Transfer

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Risk-based Maintenance Management

Exercise Problems

DATA FOR RISK STUDIES

Introduction

Data Sources

Databases

Elicitation of Expert Opinions

Model Modification Based on Available Data

Failure Data Sources

Exercise Problems

Appendix A. Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics

Appendix B. Failure Data

References and Bibliography

Subject Index