In 1985, the U.S. aerospace industry achieved a $13.1 billion trade surplus and contributed $89.2 billion in shipments to the U.S. economy. Without·aerospace, the U.S. trade balance in high technology industries would--for the first time--have fallen into a deficit. Civil aircraft play a significant role in the U.S. aerospace industry, and U.S. civil aircraft have dominated world markets (particularly the large transport segment) since the development of jet engine aircraft in the 1950s. This dominance has recently been challenged by the emergence of the European Airbus Industrie, which has achieved a significant market position in wide-body aircraft and appears committed to the development of a diversified family of civil aircraft. Industry observers are also concerned about the possibility of Japan entering the large transport competition. In this assessment, the U.S. Department of Commerce examines the prospects for continued international competitiveness of U.S. civil aircraft. The report identifies key factors that will determine the shape of future competition, develops alternative scenarios for the future, and presents-a framework within which developments can be monitored and measured.
Table of Contents
Introduction , The U.S. Civil Aircraft Industry, Civil Aircraft Businesses Segmentation by Firm and Function, Key Industry Features, Evolution of the U.S. Civil Aviation Industry and Its Relationships with the Federal Government, Technological and Performance Evolution of the U.S. Civil Aircraft Industry, Effects of World War II, Post-World War II Developments, The Jet Age, Entering the 1980s, Recent Industry Performance, Industry Growth, Export Performance, Financial Performance, Capital Expenditures, Employment, R&D Expenditures, Past and current Competitiveness: Large Transports, The Economics of Large Transport Development, Production and Operation in the United States; Trends and Forces Influencing the Future: U.S. Large Transports; The Future International Competitiveness of U.S. Large Transports: Conventional Economics of Large Transport Development and Production; A new Economics Based on Supercomputers, Supersoftware and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing; The Future International Competitiveness of the U.S. General Aviation Aircraft and Helicopters.
Theodore w. Schlie, formerly director of the Industry Analysis Division in the U.S. Department of CommerceInternational Trade Administration, is associate professor in the Stuart School of Business Administration, Illinois Institute of Technology.