The Armed Conflict Survey is the annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all active conflicts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It offers in-depth analysis of the drivers, dynamics and outlook of 34 current armed conflicts along with detailed information on conflict parties and more than 60 full-colour maps and infographics. The Armed Conflict Survey is an essential resource for those involved in security, foreign and humanitarian policymaking, and an indispensable handbook for anyone conducting serious analysis of armed conflict.
· Essays on global trends in armed conflict, with a focus on the changing nature of third-party intervention, the long aftermath of armed conflicts, and economic migration and forced displacement in a COVID-19 world.
· Overviews of key events and political and military developments from January 2020–February 2021 for each conflict.
· Strategic analysis of national and regional drivers and conflict outlooks.
· Regional analyses with unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across regions and globally.
· Expanded information on conflict parties.
· The Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator (ACGRI), an IISS proprietary indicator that combines measures of incidence and human impact with geopolitical impact to assess the global salience of armed conflicts.
· Analysis of the humanitarian, social and economic impact of conflicts.
· Conflict-specific trends, strategic implications and prospects for peace.
· More than 60 full-colour maps, tables and infographics highlighting key conflict developments and data.
· Key statistics on violent events, fatalities, military power, geopolitical salience, refugees and internally displaced persons.
· The 2021 Chart of Armed Conflict, presenting information on conflict start dates, typologies and relevant refugee flows, as well as providing a visual overview of each conflict’s geopolitical relevance, looking at 2020 UN Security Council resolutions, multilateral missions and the involvement of third-party countries.
Table of Contents
Editor’s Introduction 5
Notes on Methodology 11
Global Trends 15
Interventions in Armed Conflicts:
Waning Western Dominance 16
The Long Aftermath of Armed Conflicts 22
Economic Migration, Forced Displacement
and Armed Conflict in a COVID-19 World 29
Conflict Reports 35
1 Americas 36
Regional Analysis 36
El Salvador 74
2 Europe and Eurasia 86
Regional Analysis 86
3 Middle East and North Africa 112
Regional Analysis 112
Israel–Palestinian Territories 150
4 Sub-Saharan Africa 188
Regional Analysis 188
The Sahel 194
Lake Chad Basin 206
Central African Republic 216
South Sudan 226
Democratic Republic of the Congo 256
5 Asia 300
Regional Analysis 300
India–Central (Maoist) 356
Philippines (NPA) 370
Philippines (ASG & Moro) 378
Data Appendix 386
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The staff of the Institute is international in composition and IISS work is international in its perspective and reach. The Institute is independent and stresses rigorous fact-based research with a forward-looking policy orientation that can improve wider public understanding of international security problems and influence the development of sounder public policy, and more effective business decisions in the international arena.