Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting: 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

1st Edition

By John Bryant, Junni L. Zhang

Chapman and Hall/CRC

280 pages

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Description

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty.

The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com.

"This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters…as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Example: Mortality Rates for Maori

    Our Approach to Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

    Outline of the Rest of the Book

    References and Further Reading

  3. Demographic Foundations
  4. Demographic Foundations

    References and Further Reading

    Demographic Individuals

    Attributes

    Events

    The Lexis Diagram

    Twelve Fictitious Individuals

    References and Further Reading

    Demographic Arrays

    Population Counts

    Death Counts

    Movements

    Alternative Representations of Changing Statuses

    Non-Demographic Events

    Exposure

    Age, Period, and Cohort

    Rates, Proportions, Means, and Ratios

    Super-Population and Finite-Population Quantities

    Collapsing Dimensions

    References and Further Reading

    Demographic Accounts

    Demographic Systems

    Demographic Accounts

    An Account with No Region and No Age

    An Account with Region but Not Age

    An Account with Age But Not Region

    Movements Accounts and Transitions Accounts*

    Mathematical Description of the Demographic Accounting Identities*

    References and Further Reading

    Demographic Data

    Traditional Data Sources

    New Data Sources

    Data Quality and Model Choice

    References and Further Reading

    3. Bayesian Foundations

    Bayesian Foundations

    Bayesian Statistics

    The Features of a Bayesian Data Analysis

    References and Further Reading

    Bayesian Model Specification

    Using Probability Distributions to Quantify Uncertainty

    Posterior as Compromise Between Likelihood and Prior

    Standard Probability Distributions

    Poisson Distribution

    Binomial Distribution

    Normal Distribution

    Half-t Distribution

    Exchangeability

    Partial Exchangeability

    Exchangeability within Groups

    Exchangeable Residuals

    Exchangeable Increments

    Pooling Information

    Hierarchy

    Incorporating External Information

    Priors

    Covariates

    Embedding the Model in a Larger Model

    References and Further Reading

    Bayesian Inference and Model Checking

    Computation

    Summarizing the Posterior Distribution

    Summary Measures

    Calculating Posterior Summaries

    Derived Distributions

    Posterior Distribution for Derived Quantities

    Posterior Predictive Distribution

    Missing Data

    Forecasting

    Model Checking

    Responsible Modellers Check and Revise their Models

    Held back Data

    Replicate Data

    *Simulation and Calibration

    References and Further Reading

  5. Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data
  6. Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data

    Summary of the Framework of Part III

    Applications

    References and Further Reading

    Infant Mortality in Sweden

    The Infant Mortality Rate

    Modelling Infant Mortality Rates in Swedish Counties

    Model

    Likelihood

    Model for Underlying Infant Mortality Rates

    Prior for the Region Effect

    Prior for Time Effect

    Prior for Intercept

    Prior for Standard Deviation

    Summary

    Results

    Infant Mortality Rates

    Intercept, Region Effects, and Time Effects

    Prior for Time Effect

    Standard Deviations

    Model Checking

    Model Predictions versus Direct Estimates

    Regional Variation in Slopes

    Summarizing Results via Probabilities

    Forecasting

    Constructing the Forecasts

    Results: Exploding Credible Intervals for Forecasting

    A Partial Solution

    References and Further Reading

    Life Expectancy in Portugal

    Mortality Rates

    The Log Function

    Life Expectancy

    Age, Sex, and Time Effects

    Interactions

    Models

    Likelihood

    Model for Mortality Rates

    Prior for Age Effect

    Prior for Time Effect

    Prior for Age-Time Interaction

    Prior for Sex-Time Interaction

    Priors for Other Terms

    Summary

    Model Choice Using Heldback Data

    Estimating and Forecasting with the Baseline and Alternative

    Models

    Comparing the Forecasts with the Heldback Data

    Results

    Forecasting of Life Expectancy for -

    *Obtaining Forecasts of Life Expectancy

    References and Further Reading

    Health Expenditure in the Netherlands

    A Simple Expenditure Projection

    Expenditure Projections for the Netherlands

    A Statistical Model for Per Capita Expenditures

    Model Checking via Replicate Data

    Revised Expenditure Projections

    Forecasting Policy Outcomes

    References and Further Reading

  7. Inferring Arrays from Unreliable Data
  8. Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data

    Summary of the Framework

    Data Models

    Applications

    References and Further Reading

    Internal Migration in Iceland

    Internal Migration in Iceland

    Continentalization by Random Rounding to Base Three

    Overview of Model

    System Model

    Data Model

    Estimation

    Results for Unconfidentialized Migration Counts

    Results for Migration Rates

    Forecasting

    References and Further Reading

    Fertility in Cambodia

    Data

    Overview of Model

    System Model

    Data Models

    Census

    Demographic and Health Survey

    Results

    Revised Model

    Final Model

    References and Further Reading

  9. Inferring Accounts

Inferring Demographic Accounts

Summary of Our Approach

Applications

The Role of Demographic Accounts in Official Statistical Systems

References and Further Reading

Population in New Zealand

Input Data for the National Demographic Account

Model for National Demographic Account

Overview

Account

System Models

Data Models

Estimation

Results for the National Demographic Account

Sensitivity Tests for the National Demographic Account

Input Data for the Regional Demographic Account

Model for the Regional Demographic Account

System Models

xii Contents

Data Models

Results for the Regional Demographic Account

References and Further Reading

Population in China

Input Data

Model

Overview

Account

System Models

Data Models

Estimation and Forecasting

Results

References and Further Reading

Conclusion

About the Authors

John Bryant is a senior researcher at Statistics New Zealand. He has previously worked at the New Zealand Treasury, and at universities in New Zealand and Thailand. He has consulted for many international organizations, including UNICEF, the FAO, and the World Bank. His research interests include applied demography, data science, and Bayesian statistics.

Junni L. Zhang is an associate professor of statistics at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her research interests include Bayesian statistics, text mining, and causal inference. She has extensive experience teaching undergraduate, graduate, MBA and executive courses, and is the author of Data Mining and Its Applications (in Chinese).

About the Series

Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences

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Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
MAT029000
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General
MED028000
MEDICAL / Epidemiology