The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. This second edition extends the use of scenarios planning and methods to tackle the risk and uncertainty of financial markets and the potentially massive impacts on businesses of all kinds, providing powerful tools to give far thinking executives an advantage in these turbulent times.
Table of Contents
Preface * Part I * Introduction: Why Write This Book and for Whom? * Conceptual and Historical Overview * How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other? * Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective * New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought * Part II * Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis * Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence * Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare * To What Extent Do Venezuela‘s Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue? * Part III * Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios * Scenarios that Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence * From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice * Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground * Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios? * Turbulence, Business Planning and the Unfolding 'Crisis': The Canary in the Mind * Part IV * Conclusion: The Conjuncture of Scenarios and Causal Textures - Contributions and Progress * Index
Rafael Ramírez is James Martin Senior Research Fellow in Futures at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, Said Business School, University of Oxford. He co-chairs the World Economic Forum's 'Global Agenda Council on Strategic Foresight'. John W. Selsky is Associate Professor of Management, College of Business, University of South Florida Polytechnic. Kees van der Heijden is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management at Strathclyde University Business School, Glasgow, and currently Fellow in Strategic Management at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford.
'The book shows that the rigorous thinking of scholarly work is not something for 'ivory towers'; instead the book shows how academic work can provide the foundations for practical, even wise action by policy makers and decision-makers.' From the Foreword by Vince Cable 'A very important addition to the scenarios literature. The editors and contributors ... are all to be congratulated.' The British Accounting Review 'Book of the month ... For business students and people at the sharp end of formulating corporate or political strategy it provides some carefully thought-out and inventive ideas.' Qualityworld Magazine 'A welcome and important addition to our field.' Paul J. H. Schoemaker, PhD, adjunct professor of marketing, The Wharton School, author of Winning Decisions, Profiting from Uncertainty and Peripheral Vision 'This is a very useful book. It integrates different methods of strategy making in an insightful way that will benefit thoughtful executives and practice-oriented academics alike.' Yves Doz, Professor of strategic management, INSEAD 'Essential reading for the new generation of business leaders.' Napier Collyns, cofounder of Global Business Network 'The business bible on scenario development.' Steve Waddell, Networking Action 'This stimulating book offers much needed reflection on the conceptual foundations of scenario planning and related methodologies for navigating uncertainty. A diverse range of authors draws important linkages to various academic disciplines, and ... illuminate important links between theory and practice that have been largely underappreciated. The book probes deep questions, offers a wide scope of inquiry and garners important new insights building on multiple schools of thought. [A] welcome and important addition to our field.' Paul J. H. Schoemaker, PhD, adjunct professor of marketing, The Wharton School, author of Winning Decisions, Profiting from Uncertainty and Peripheral Vision 'Combines practical relevance with academic rigour. I commend it alike to executives and scholars - indeed to anyone with a serious interest in thinking about the future.' Sandy Pepper, partner, PricewaterhouseCoopersLLP 'The business bible on scenario development' NetworkingAction.net 'A unique combination of practical and conceptual approaches to scenario building. It sets in perspective and grounds efforts to explore alternative futures and guide action in our turbulent times ... Required reading for all strategic planners and thinkers.' Francisco Sagasti, chairman, Program on Science and Technology, Office of the Prime Minister of Peru, boardmember of IDRC, and former chief of strategic planning at the World Bank 'What all readers will come away with is a new confidence in using scenarios on tough problems for the right purpose, which is to change thinking.� In addition, one gets a glimmer of a new way of doing strategy, by engaging in co-evolution, by�cutting loose from old thinking that doesn't work in a turbulent environment.� This book is part of the education that we need as a civilization.' Kent Myers 'The chapters explore how concepts of turbulence ... can usefully inform scenario planning practice.' Academy of Management News 'Extremely relevant for both the discipline of scenario planning and managers that face uncertainty in their strategic business decisions.' ZfB - Zeitschrift f�r Betriebswirtschaft 'With this book, futures researchers and practitioners will find new perspectives to discuss turbulence and scenario planning connections and to make sense to the related issues.' Futures Magazine