Between Fall 2002 and Spring 2003, most of the national leadership of China's party, state, and military organs will be replaced by a new generation of officials. The accession to power of this "Fourth Generation" leadership, and the "Fifth Generation" officials who will rise to positions of influence on their coattails, will have profound implications for China, for nations in the region, and potentially for the national interests of the United States. This timely work introduces the new leaders of China and describes the political backdrop for their succession. A distinguished international group of scholars look at the process of leadership transition; the prospects and challenges facing the new leaders; questions of legitimacy and influence; flow of information on the transition within China; and security policies in the provinces and the Asia-Pacific region. They provide important insights on the leadership at "the center," in the provinces, and in the military.
I. Introduction 1. The Rise of the Fourth Generation: Overview and Implications, David M. Finkelstein and Maryanne Kivlehan II. China's New Leaders 2. Poised to Take the Helm: Rising Stars and the Transition to the Fourth Generation, Cheng Li 3. Hu Jintao's Succession: Prospects and Challenges, Murray Scott Tanner 4. The Provinces: Training Ground for National Leaders or a Power in Their Own Right? Zhiyue Bo III. Institutions in Transition 5. Leading Small Groups: Managing All Under Heaven, Taeho Kim 6. The Role of Mishus in the Chinese Political System: Change and Continuity, James C. Mulvenon and Michael S. Chase 7. Where Do Correct Ideas Come From? The Party School, Key Think Tanks, and the Intellectuals, Joseph Fewsmith IV. Challenges to Governance and Reform 8. From the July 1st Speech to the 16th Party Congress: Ideology, Party Construction, and Leadership Transition, Wu Guoguang 9. Economics as the Central Task: Do Entrepreneurs Matter? Bruce J. Dickson 10. Social Dynamics and New Generation Politics, Carol Lee Hamrin 11. The Absent-Minded Reform of China's Media, Anne Stevenson-Yang V. The Generation After Next and Future Prospects for the CCP 12. The Generation After Next in Chinese Politics, Willy Wo-Lap Lam 13. Remaining Relevant: The Challenges for the Party in Late-Leninist China, David Shambaugh