China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.
This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.
Table of Contents
Part One New Stage of Demographic Transition
1. Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, and the Lewis Turning Point in China
2. The End of China’s Demographic Dividend: The Perspective of Potential GDP Growth
3. Approaching a Neoclassical Scenario: The Labor Market in China after the Lewis Turning Point
4. China’s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective
Part Two Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
5. Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories, Experiences, and Relevance to China
6. How to Understand Income Inequality in China? Seeking Common Ground from the Debates
7. Labor Market Changes, Labor Disputes, and Social Cohesion in China
8. Old Age Support System in China: Situations, Challenges, and Policy Trends
Part Three Supply-side Structural Reform
9. The Hukou Reform and Unification of Rural–Urban Social Welfare
10. From Quantitative Issues to Structural Issues: An Interpretation of China’s Labor Market
11. China’s Demand for Human Capital and Education Reform
12. China’s Agricultural Modernization and Economies of Scale: Barriers and Solutions
13. How Can Chinese Economic Growth Be Transformed to Total-Factor-Productivity-Driven Pattern?
14. The New Normal: The Macro History and Grand Logic of China’s Economic Development
Cai Fang is Professor, Vice President and Party Group Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Professor Cai’s research interests include labor economics, China’s economic growth, and income distribution. His recent publications include Demystifying the Economic Growth in Transition China, China’s Economic Growth Prospects: From Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend, and Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening-Up?