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2nd Edition

Elementary Probability with Applications




ISBN 9781498771320
Published December 13, 2016 by Chapman and Hall/CRC
208 Pages - 11 B/W Illustrations

 
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Book Description

Elementary Probability with Applications, Second Edition shows students how probability has practical uses in many different fields, such as business, politics, and sports. In the book, students learn about probability concepts from real-world examples rather than theory.

The text explains how probability models with underlying assumptions are used to model actual situations. It contains examples of probability models as they relate to:

  • Bloc voting
  • Population genetics
  • Doubling strategies in casinos
  • Machine reliability
  • Airline management
  • Cryptology
  • Blood testing
  • Dogs resembling owners
  • Drug detection
  • Jury verdicts
  • Coincidences
  • Number of concert hall aisles
  • 2000 U.S. presidential election
  • Points after deuce in tennis
  • Tests regarding intelligent dogs
  • Music composition

Based on the author’s course at The College of William and Mary, the text can be used in a one-semester or one-quarter course in discrete probability with a strong emphasis on applications. By studying the book, students will appreciate the subject of probability and its applications and develop their problem-solving and reasoning skills.

Table of Contents

Basic Concepts in Probability
Sample Spaces, Events, and Probabilities
Simulations
Complementary Events and Mutually Exclusive Events
Some Probability Rules
Problem Solving
Problems

Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Rule
Conditional Probability
Multiplication Rule
Problems

Independence
Independence
A Technique for Finding P(A or B or C or …)
Problems

Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules
Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules
Bayes' Formula
Trees
Problems

Combining the Addition and Multiplication Rules—Applications
Simpson’s Paradox
Randomized Response Designs
Applications in Cryptology
Hardy–Weinberg Principle
Problems

Random Variables, Distributions, and Expected Values
Random Variables, Distributions, and Expected Values
Problems

Joint Distributions and Conditional Expectations
Joint Distributions
Independent Random Variables
Conditional Distributions
Conditional Expectations
Problems

Sampling without Replacement
Counting Formula
Probabilities for Sampling without Replacement
Problems

Sampling with Replacement
Binomial Model
Problems

Sampling with Replacement (Continued)
Binomial Model (Continued)
Problems

Binomial Tests
Introduction
Binomial Tests
Problems

Appendix

Short Answers to Selected Exercises

Bibliography

Index

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Author(s)

Biography

Larry Rabinowitz taught mathematics and probability in the mathematics department at The College of William and Mary for over 30 years.

Reviews

Praise for the First Edition:
"It is desirable that all citizens have an elementary understanding of probability [so] that they better appreciate the uncertainty that surrounds them. Anyone teaching such citizens should consider using this book because, through its applications, it conveys something of the power of probability."
—D.V. Lindley, Mathematical Gazette, November 2006

"This book was surprisingly refreshing and did a great job using real situations to motivate techniques for calculating discrete probabilities."
Technometrics, August 2006

"The problems are graded from fairly straightforward to very challenging and the book is, for this reason at least, a welcome addition to the literature."
MAA Reviews, October 2005

"This book would be excellent for a minicourse at a higher level of high school as well as a semester course at the college level."
—Larry White, National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM), October 2005

"The chosen approach is practical and entertaining. The book is a useful tool for teachers and anybody interested in basic ideas and applications of classical probability theory."
EMS Newsletter, June 2005