1st Edition

Emerging Economies, Risk and Development, and Intelligent Technology Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, June 1-3, 2015, Tangier, Morocco

    RACR is a series of biennial international conferences on risk analysis, crisis response, and disaster prevention for specialists and stakeholders. RACR-2015, held June 1-3, 2015 in Tangier, Morocco, was the fifth conference in this series, following the successful RACR-2007 in Shanghai (China), RACR-2009 in Beijing (China), RACR-2011 in Laredo (USA) and RACR-2013 in Istanbul (Turkey).

    To raise risk awareness within small countries and emerging economies, RACR-2015 chose the following theme: Emerging Economies, Risk and Development, and Intelligent Technology. This volume is composed of 77 high-quality papers submitted to RACR-2015 that have passed a rigorous peer review process, reflecting state-of-the-art research from around the world. The contributions cover almost all risk fields such as risk identification, risk assessment, risk evaluation and risk management. The conference topics included economic risk, catastrophic accidents, debt crisis, public health, uncertainty plague, threats to social safety, humanitarian logistics, terrorism events, managing risk for development, emerging risk, risk evaluation modeling, energy and resources, multi-criteria risk assessment, food and feed safety, risk radar, global climate change, internet of intelligences, Islamic banking, and natural disasters among others.


    A paradigm to construct Internet of intelligences for risk assessment
    C. Huang

    Research on the urban emergency shelter system planning: A case study of Guangzhou, China
    G. Zhai, W. Chen, W. Jin & Y. Xie

    Modeling causality of financial investment decisions in R&D on economic yields
    F. James

    Islamic banking and the limits of interest practices: Evidences from bootstrapping methodology
    B. Nesrin, C. Ikram, E. Mohammad & L. Abdelouahid

    Credit evaluation for SEMs in inventory financing mode based on combination weighting method
    H. Zhu, M. Zhang & H. Zhang

    The measure of data aggregation bias for crop production risk assessment
    Q. Zhang, Y. Li, K. Wang & W. Sun

    The acceptable risk criteria of mining industry in China
    S. Zhang, C. Wu, X. Shi, X. Li & S. Yao

    Enterprise legal risk management implementation in China—a case study
    X. Gao, D. Lu & Y. Cui

    Simulation of the policy effect of technological SMEs loan risk compensation based on SD model
    X. Liu, M. Zhang & L. Song

    Trust in the government in emergency management—from the perspective of procedural justice
    X. Su & P. Yang

    Credit evaluation for technological SMEs in inventory financing mode based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
    Y. Sun, M. Zhang & H. Zhang

    Credit risk under two-track system of rural finance in China
    L. Zhao, B. Song, S. Zhao & Q. Zhang

    Comparison of two algorithms for retrieving land surface temperature from Landsat-8 TIRS data
    B. Wei & S. Yin

    Health risk assessment of exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in garden vegetables in Southern Jiangsu, China
    H. Cao, Q. Li & S. Chao

    Study on the optimal layout of GIS-based fire station points in Jiaonan of Qingdao City
    P. Chen, J. Zhang, L. Zhang & Y. Sun

    The utility assessment of rainstorm early warning based on Monte-Carlo simulation: A case study of Beijing
    C. Niu, H. Zhao, F. Wang, T. Zhang, H. Hu & W. Cao

    Inventory mapping of landslides caused by the 2013 Lushan, China Mw 6.6 earthquake
    C. Xu

    Analysis of desertification feature of typical steppe grassland based on fractal theory: A case study of Xilin GOL League
    C. Li, R. Hu, S. Yin, Y. Bao & Y. Li

    Natural hazards crisis: Disaster prediction, mitigation and prevention
    D. Liu, G. Liu, F. Wang & Z. Chen

    Eutrophication risk assessment: A hybrid cloud approach
    D. Liu, D. Wang, Y. Wang, L. Wang & L. Zhang

    Simulating the adaptive measures of soybean production to climate change in China: Based on cross-scale model coupling
    D. Fan, Q. Ding, Z. Tian, L. Sun & F. Guenther

    A study in recognizing weather-yield risk relationship of paddy planting in Hunan Province by data mining technology
    E. Chen & S. Zhao

    The return period analysis of dust storm disaster based on joint distribution of three hazards
    J. Feng & N. Li

    Study on the risk of probable maximum storm surge disaster in coastal area of Tianjin
    Z. Gao, S. Wu, M. Dong, J. Zhang, M. Chen & Y. Qi

    An exit optimization modeling within evacuation simulation statistics in dense urban open space
    G. Zhao, Y. Zhao, Q. Zhang & H. Wang

    Research of cigarette sales quantity forecast based on multiple linear regression model
    H. Zhang, Y. Chen & T. Li

    Some preliminary results on children’s earthquake risk perception of a highly seismic region of Mexico
    S.-R. Jaime, S.-R. Galdino & G. Tatiana

    The integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster on maize production in China
    J. Zhao & Q. Zhang

    Study on extreme risk measurement of vegetable oil futures market using the ARMA-GARCH approach
    G. Li & Z. Li

    Earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation based on fuzzy logic and Shannon’s entropy integrated information value models in the 2013 Minxian, China earthquake-affected area
    L. Shen, L. Liu, J. Wang & C. Xu

    Risk identification for children’s sport suits based on product lifecycle
    X. Liu, W. Tang & Y. Yang

    Fuzzy risk assessment of entropy-weight coefficient method applied in large public building fires
    J. Luo & J. Sun

    Evaluation of Fire Brigade Disasters Response Capacity by Analytical Hierarchy Process in Yunnan Province
    M. Fan, L. He, B. Liu, S. Chen & H. Li

    Study on the characteristics variation of deep ocean currents in China’s offshore based on China Ocean Reanalysis
    L. Xu, J. Yang, G. Wang & S. Xing

    Research on the evaluation system of construction risks based on catastrophe progression method
    Q. Wu, T. Zhang & Y. Zong

    Efficiency evaluation of financial support on the biological medicine industry in China based on DEA
    Q. Tang, M. Zhang & H. Zhang

    Spatial-and-temporal risk assessment of crops caused by flood in Northeast China
    S. Zhao & Q. Zhang

    A dynamic PD-HL model with various penalty parameters
    T. Zhang, H. Zhao & X. Bai

    The study of drought and its impact analysis for tourism in western Jilin Province
    W. Cai

    Study on social risk evaluation and mechanism of major projects
    X. Zhang, Y. Xu, L. Lv & Y. Wang

    The study of agricultural drought disaster risk early warning system
    X. Liu, J. Zhang & D. Ma

    Assessment of rainstorm risk in Chinese civil aviation system
    X. Guo, X. Hu, H. Li & Z. Xu

    The study of grassland fire early warning based on SVM
    X. Liu, J. Zhang & Z. Tong

    The GREEN model for comprehensive severity of QAR exceedance with associated event
    X. Zhang, X. Luo & H. Chi

    Improving urban master plan by fire risk assessment—in case of Shantou City, China
    X. Huang, G. Zhai, Y. Liu & Z. He

    Landslide susceptibility assessment at the Suichuan area (China) using support vector machine model
    H. Hong, P. Biswajeet, D.T. Bui & C. Xu

    Ratio bias and sensitivity to probability in individuals’ WTP for risk reduction of natural disasters
    Z. He & G. Zhai

    Example application of risk assessment technology based on acute poisoning accident dispersion simulation
    D. Huang, Q. Zhang, M. Li & M. Liu

    Assessment on spatial vulnerability of network systems under spatially local hazards
    H. Li, X. Hu, X. Guo & Z. Xu

    The study of public acceptance of nuclear power in China with quantitative model
    J. Li, Y. Liu, Y. Yang & C. Fang

    Disaster risk evaluation of old industrial buildings
    Q. Wu, X. Wu, Y. Zong & D. Zheng

    Risk and crisis communication about nuclear accidents: A study with psychological methods
    Y. Yang, L. Jin, J. Li & C. Fang

    Spatial distribution analyses of pre-earthquake and coseismic landslides related to the 2014 Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake of China
    Y. Tian, C. Xu & J. Chen

    Drought risks evaluation in different periods in low latitude plateau based on fuzzy information distribution theory
    Y. Liu, G. Peng & N. Zhao

    Evolution characteristics of droughts during winter wheat growth in Shandong province since 1960 based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
    J. Zhao, Q. Zhang, Z. Song & W. Sun

    Case study: Financial indicators of the Mafia in the Montreal municipality infrastructure
    M.N. Maillette

    A scenario puzzle method for dynamic regional disaster risk assessment
    F. Zeng, C. Huang & S. Guo

    Dip angle and dissimilar materials in the Longmen Shan: Insights from numerical models
    Q. Yao, H. Xing, C. Xu & W. Zhang

    Rainfall threshold analysis for the initiation of landslides in Sichuan Province of China
    L. Shen, L. Liu, W. Yang, C. Xu & J. Wang

    Landslides caused by the Mw 6.1 Ludian, China earthquake of August 3, 2014
    C. Xu

    Experimental study on evacuation behavior of crowds in emergency situation
    W. Zhu, Y. Wang, Y. Ma, Y. Kong, X. Zhou & B. Du

    Comparisons of methods of goodness of fit tests in hydrologic analysis
    X. Zeng, D. Wang & J. Wu

    Analysis of risk perception and decision-making behavior: An empirical case study of poultry industry
    L. Xu, Q. Zhang, L. Zhao, S. Zhao, J. Zhang, Y. Li, W. Sun, S. Tao, J. Wu, Z. Song, F. Zhang & S. Song

    A dynamic decision support system based on Geographical Information and Mobile Social Networks: A model for tsunami risk mitigation in Padang, Indonesia
    F. Ai, L.K. Comfort & T. Znati

    Analysis on mortgage risk of the right to use sea area in China
    S. Liu, J. Zhang, W. Xu & M. Zhao

    Analysis of old steel mill renovation project’s investment risk based on the real option of the BOT mode
    Q. Wu, Y. Zong, X. Wu, T. Zhang & J. Liu

    The index system of ecological risk assessment based on the industrialization development of Coal-Bed Methane
    W. Sun, Y. Xu & X. Ren

    Case study on snow disaster evaluation based on the directed and weighted complex networks
    W. Zhu & Q. You

    A case study of regional ecological risk assessment based on landscape structure
    X. Liu, J. Dong, K. Zhong & J. Zhang

    Research on an earthquake-induced landslide probability of occurrence model based on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
    J. Shang & J. Liu

    A survey of recent research regarding risks to marine
    W. Su & F. Zeng

    A preliminary study on time characteristic of natural disaster risk
    J. Guo, Z. Sijian & C. Huang

    Risk assessment of disaster caused by heavy rainfall: A case study in Beijing
    W. Cao, C. Huang & H. Zhao

    Butterfly effect and medical risk management
    F. Zhang, J. Kong & X. Hu

    Assessment on the effectiveness of suppressing premixed fuel-air explosion by ultra-fine cold aerosol
    C. Ren,Y. Zhang, X. Sun, J. Wang & J. Li

    The role of NGOs in natural disaster governance: A case study on the One Foundation in Ya’an earthquake
    G. Wu & M. Gao

    Simulation of the rainfall-runoff process using HEC-HMS model in the Meghougha river basin in Tangier city (Northern Morocco)
    K. Iliasse & H.A. Adil

    Author index



    Chongfu Huang (Society for Risk Analysis - China, Beijing, P.R. China). Abdelouahid Lyhyaoui. Zhai Guofang, Nesrin Benhayoun