The fifth Millennium Development target of reducing infant mortality by two thirds by the year 2015 can only be achieved if mortality due to malaria is significantly reduced. WHO recommends early detection and treatment among high-risk groups as one of the strategies for reducing the malaria burden. To be effective, this approach requires an early warning system which enables the health care system to be well-prepared and to allocate scarce resources effectively. Unfortunately, such a system is still not available at the appropriate scale. This book addresses this issue by developing a dynamic malaria transmission model at a local (district) scale using appropriate environmental factors. This dynamic model, driven by temperature and rainfall, successfully simulates seasonal vector abundance and also predicts successfully the monthly malaria incidence. Additionally through a detailed and innovative methodology this pioneering book enables scientists to replicate the study elsewhere in different settings.
Contents: Preface; Part 1 Introduction; What is malaria? How is it transmitted?; Malaria epidemiology and economic burden; Risk factors for malarial transmission; Fighting malaria; Rationale of the study; Study questions and objectives; Conceptual framework. Part 2 Population, Material and Methods: Study design; Study sites; Malaria infection survey; Entomological survey; Weather data; Data processing; Data analysis; Ethical considerations. Part 3 Results: Characteristics of the study population; Outcome of follow up; Fever and p. faciparum infection status; Weather variation in the 4 sites; Effect of weather on p. falciparum infection; Mosquito population dynamics; Weather-based dynamic model of malaria transmission. Part 4 Discussion and Conclusions: Discussion; Conclusion; References; Annexes: Index.