In the aftermath of the "explosion" of "hard" data sets in the 1960s for the study of international relations, there has been a movement back toward the use of various experts to quantify the more elusive aspects of the international situation. These aspects range from the beliefs and perceptions of decision makers to the array of stresses that confront nation-states both internally and externally. This volume reflects the most recent and innovative work in the use of data generated by academic, policy, and other experts. The authors discuss expert-generated data as a means of data making, data refinement, and policy analysis. They present all of the major expert-based approaches and offer a variety of methodological and substantive applications.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, CONTRIBUTORS, 1 - EXPERT-GENERATED DATA: AN OVERVIEW, 2 - METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES AND PROBLEMS IN EMPLOYING EXPERT-GENERATED DATA, 3 - COMPUTER-BASED BAYESIAN FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES, 4 - APPLICATIONS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE, 5 - DECISION AIDS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART, 6 - OPEC: A FRAGILE UNITY, 7 - DIVISIONS WITHIN THE CUBAN LEADERSHIP: A SIMULATED POLL, 8 - JUDGMENTS OF COUNTRY SPECIALISTS ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY FORMATION: THE OPERATION OF INTERNAL DECISION PROCESSES, 9 - PROBABILITY FORECASTING IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, 10 - EVENTS DATA AND THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS EXPERT: TOWARD A SYNTHESIS?
Gerald W. Hopple is senior research analyst, International Public Policy Research Corporation.