Published in 1999. The issue of financial volatility, especially since financial deregulation, has given rise to concerns regarding the effects of increased financial volatility on real economic activity. Two issues represent a substantial challenge to financial economists with respect to these concerns. The first relates to the identification of the causes of increased volatility in financial markets. Identification is a first step towards increasing both financial economists' and policy-makers' understanding of the interrelated causes of financial volatility. The second requires linking the effects of increased financial volatility to the real sector of the economy by examining the channels through which financial volatility influences fundamental economic variables. In order to address these two issues, the analysis initially develops and estimates a model which is capable of explaining the financial and business cycle determinates of movements in the conditional volatility of the Australian All Industrials stock market index. Evidence suggests that a significant linkage exists between the conditional volatility of the money supply. Models are then developed to examine how monetary volatility is transmitted to the volatility of financial asset prices, inflation and real output in an open economy. The results indicate that while financial volatility has increased to some extent since the late 1980s, this has been transferred non-uniformly towards increasing volatility of both real and financial activity.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. Volatility: Issues and Measuring Techniques 3. Financial Volatility and Real Economic Activity 4. The Causes of Stock Market Volatility in Australia 5. Monetary Volatility and Real Output Volatility: An Empirical Model of the Transmission Mechanism, Australia, Jan 1972 – Jan 1994 6. Fiscal Financing Decisions and Exchange Rate Variability: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis 7. The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Japan’s Bi-Lateral Trade 8. Summary, Conclusions, Policy Implications and Further Studies.