Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process: 1st Edition (Paperback) book cover

Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

1st Edition

By Micah Mukungu Mukolwe

CRC Press

134 pages

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pub: 2016-12-06
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Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of probabilistic approaches seems more appropriate. Uncertain, probabilistic floodplain maps are widely used in the scientific domain, but still not sufficiently exploited to support the development of flood mitigation strategies.

In this thesis the major sources of uncertainty in flood inundation models are analyzed, resulting in the generation of probabilistic floodplain maps. The utility of probabilistic model output is assessed using value of information and the prospect theory. The use of these maps to support decision making in terms of floodplain development under flood hazard threat is demonstrated.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Background and Motivation

1.2 Research objectives

1.3 Methodology

1.4 Outline of the thesis

Chapter 2 A review of flood inundation modelling

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Flood modelling

2.3 Numerical modelling of floods

2.3.1 Governing flow equations

2.3.2 HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP Models

2.3.3 Why LISFLOOD-FP?

2.4 Conclusions

Chapter 3 Case studies and data availability

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Case study areas

3.2.1 River Ubaye, Ubaye Valle (Barcelonnette)

3.2.2 River Po, Italy

3.3 Topographic data

3.3.1 Model geometry input

3.3.2 Topographic data sources

3.4 Parametric data

3.4.1 Model parameters

3.4.2 Inflow discharge

3.5 Conclusions

Chapter 4 Uncertainty in Flood Modelling

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Uncertainty analysis

4.2.1 Introduction

4.2.2 Methods

4.3 Inflow uncertainty

4.3.1 Rating curve uncertainty

4.3.2 Peak discharge uncertainty

4.4 Model structure

4.5 Communication of Model Uncertainty

4.5.1 Flood Mapping

4.5.2 Probabilistic flood mapping

4.6 Conclusions

Chapter 5 Flood hazard maps and damage

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Flood impact analysis, Ubaye Valley, Barcelonnette

5.2.1 Preliminary analysis

5.2.2 Regional Risk Assessment (RRA)

5.2.3 Economic - Regional Risk Assessment (E-RRA)

5.2.4 Flood damages

5.3 Uncertainty in flood damage assessment

5.4 Conclusion

Chapter 6 Usefulness of Probabilistic flood hazard maps

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Value Of Information (VOI)

6.2.1 Introduction

6.2.2 Application VOI to Ubaye valley (Barcelonnette)

6.3 Prospect Theory

6.3.1 Introduction

6.3.2 Making a decision

6.3.3 Prospect theory application to Ubaye valley (Barcelonnette)

6.3.4 Numerical example

6.3.5 Implementation of prospect theory for Ubaye valley case study

6.4 Conclusion

Chapter 7 Conclusions and recommendations

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Summary of results

7.2.1 Uncertainty in flood modelling: Chapter 2 - Chapter 4

7.2.2 Usefulness of uncertain information: Chapter 5 and Chapter 6

7.3 Limitations of the study

7.4 Conclusions

7.5 Recommendations

About the Author

Micah M. Mukolwe is a trained civil engineer with interests in civil infrastructure design, implementation, project planning and management, and the effect (and mitigation) of natural hazards on floodplain receptors using hydroinformatics tools.

About the Series

IHE Delft PhD Thesis Series

IHE Delft PhD programme leads to a deepening of a field of specialisation. PhD fellows do scientific research, often with conclusions that directly influence their region. At IHE Delft, PhD researchers from around the world participate in problem-focused and solution-oriented research on development issues, resulting in an inspiring research environment. PhD fellows work together with other researchers from many countries dealing with topics related to water and the environment.

PhD research is often carried out in the ‘sandwich’ model. Preparation and final reporting – the first and last portion of the programme – are carried out in Delft, while actual research is done in the fellow’s home country, under co-supervision of a local institute. Regular contacts with the promotor are maintained through visits and long-distance communication. This enables researchers to employ solutions directly to problems in their geographical region.

IHE Delft PhD degrees are awarded jointly with a university. The degrees are highly valued and fully recognised in all parts of the world.

Learn more…

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Environmental / General
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Environmental / Water Supply