Navigating Strategic Decisions : The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting book cover
SAVE
$24.00
1st Edition

Navigating Strategic Decisions
The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting




ISBN 9781466585980
Published June 12, 2013 by Productivity Press
435 Pages 63 B/W Illustrations

 
SAVE ~ $24.00
was $120.00
USD $96.00

Prices & shipping based on shipping country


Preview

Book Description

Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions.

Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to:

  • Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects
  • Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications
  • Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices
  • Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty
  • Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers
  • Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected

This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.

Table of Contents

Introduction
Forecast Types and Their Evolution
Why Are Good Forecasts and SDF Teams Needed?
The Role of SDF Teams and Misconceptions
Uniqueness of the Book and Benefits to the Reader
Structure of the Book and Discussion Topics

Strategic Decision Forecasting
Forecaster Relationships
Focus, Approach, and Methodology
Processes and Practices
Forecast Ownership and Accountability
Organizational Factors
Forecast Performance Measures
Expectations, Analyses, and Functions
Communications
Skills and Qualifications
Knowledge and Project Management

The Promise of Strategic Decision Forecasting
Definition of SDF
     What SDF Solutions Are Not Intended for
Purpose and Objectives of SDF
The Need for a New SDF Paradigm
The Focus of SDF
Universal SDF Process Components
Common Uses of SDF Solutions
SDF Team Charter and Structure
The Role of Strategic Decision Forecasters
The Uniqueness of SDF
Benefits and Limitations of SDF

A NEW PARADIGM FOR STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

SDF Organization Business Definition
The Mission of the SDF Team
The Vision of the SDF Team
SDF Team Principles and Values
Project Stakeholders and Functional Links
SDF Goals, Objectives, and Strategies Revisited
Scope of SDF Team Activities and Support Provided
SDF Team Governance
Internal and External SDF Networks
SDF Project and Knowledge Management
SDF Performance Measures

Culture, Mindset, Processes, and Principles
SDF Team Culture
SDF Mindset
SDF Approach
SDF Processes
SDF Principles and Guidelines

SDF Analytical Techniques and Tools
SDF Analytical Concepts and Aids
Anchoring of SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Forecasting Due Diligence
Forecasting Due Diligence Techniques and Tools
SDF Plan and Processes
SDF Methods, Systems, and Implements

SDF Assessment and Implementation Techniques
Forecasting Function Project Management
SDF Solutions, Options, and Recommendations
SDF Performance Measures
SDF Forecast Realization Plan
Institutionalizing Learning and Knowledge

STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING APPLICATIONS

Corporate Policy and Strategy Evaluation
The Current State and Causes of Failures
Particular Needs and Challenges
The Role of the SDF Team
SDF Processes and Techniques 
     Corporate Strategy Evaluation 
     Corporate Policy Evaluation
SDF Techniques and Tools
Beneficial Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Examples of Useful Practices and Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

New Product Development
Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach, Processes, and Techniques 
     Forecasting for New Product and Service Development 
     New Technology Development Forecasting
SDF Team Analyses and Evaluations 
     Idea, Discovery, and Scoping Stage and Idea and Feasibility Screen 
     Business Case Stage and Go to Development and Testing Gate 
     Develop, Test, and Validate Stage and Go to Launch and Implement Gate 
     Post New Product Launch Review
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

New Market or Business Entry
The Current State
Special Needs, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Analyses, Evaluations, and Techniques 
     SDF Analyses and Evaluations 
     SDF Techniques and Tools
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

M&A and Joint Venture Projects
The Current State
M&A and JV Challenges and Issues
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Tools and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

Product and Technology Licensing
The Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach, Processes, and Evaluations 
     SDF Approach and Processes 
     SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Techniques and Tools 
     Quantitative Technological Forecasting Techniques 
     Judgmental Technological Forecasting Techniques 
     Integrative Technological Forecasting Techniques
Success Factors and Beneficial Practices 
     Project Success Factors 
     Beneficial Practices

Corporate Reorganizations and Turnarounds
Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
      Sound Practices 
     SDF Team Contributions

Uncertainty and Risk Management
The Current State
Unique Issues and Challenges
SDF Approach and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices 
     SDF Team Contributions

Major Capex and Project Financing
Current State
Particular Challenges and Issues
SDF Approach and Participation
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

Product Portfolio Management
The Current State
Particular Issues and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Tools and Techniques
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

Negotiations and Investor Relations Support
Independent Validation and Verification
Negotiations Support
Investor Relations Support
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

Future-State Realization Planning
Current State, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach, Processes, and Tools
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

Business Cases, Plans, and Operational Targets
Current State, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
Business Case Support
Business Plan Support
Target Development Support
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions 
     Sound Practices and Success Factors 
     SDF Team Contributions

IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

Best-in-Class Strategic Forecasting Teams
Governance of SDF Teams
Forecaster Responsibilities and Qualifications
Best-in-Class Attributes and Practices
SDF Process and Principles
SDF Performance Factors and Measures
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

SDF Organization Implementation Challenges
Attitudes and Organizational Mindset
Organizational Politics
Broad Scope and Responsibilities
Forecast Quality and Ownership of Forecast
Organization Knowledge Gaps
Availability of Qualified SDF Team Members
Outsourcing of Strategic Decision Forecasts
Management and Client Reassignments
Resource Constraints and Cost–Benefit Considerations
Implementing Processes and Performance Measures

Summary and Conclusions
Conditions for Successful SDF Applications
Recurring Themes in Successful Strategic Projects
Conclusions

Bibliography
Index

...
View More

Featured Author Profiles

Author - John  Triantis
Author

John Triantis

, Long Range Planning Associates
Vero Beach, FL, USA

Learn more about John Triantis »

Reviews

"An indispensable guide for strategic project managers and a must book for strategic planners aspiring to advance their careers and become trusted advisors to decision makers, written by an expert in strategic decision forecasting as a comprehensive practical guide that lays the foundations toward competitive advantage. It will revolutionize your company’s strategic thinking by showing how to bring together methods, processes, and techniques toward sound analysis, evaluation, and forecasting for superior strategic decisions."
—George S. Vozikis, PhD, Director, Institute for Family Business, Edward Reighard Endowed Chair for Management (ret.), Department of Management, Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno

"Already a published authority on managing successful acquisition and joint venture projects, John Triantis has now focused on marking out a realistic, yet crucial, role for strategic forecasters participating in strategic projects. Forecasters following his precepts will prove themselves indispensable to the project team, while at the same time contributing to reduced time to decisions, better/sounder decisions, and increased chances of realizing forecasted project values. This is a must book for forecasters aspiring to make a difference in the world of strategic project decisions."
—John K. Hendricks, Former AT&T General Attorney, International M&A and Joint Ventures

"Finally – a book that demonstrates the connection between the art and science of strategic forecasting and successful strategic projects is here! John Triantis uncovers the truths about strategic decisions to everyone in this field and is in the forefront of helping organizations understand the importance of and implement strategic forecasting. All forecasters and decision participants will benefit from John’s 40+ years of hands-on experience and practical insights."
—Hu Song, MD, PhD, Director, Worldwide Business Insights, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, a Johnson & Johnson Company

"Dr. John Triantis is the consummate translator of the vernacular strategic analysis. Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting is written for the professional who deals with both analysis and forecasting for strategic projects. His long experience in the real world allows him to draw from the things that have worked and enables him to make sound recommendations for industry analysts and forecasters. The reader will benefit immensely from the practical insights. The information presented is understandable and transparent. The strength of the book is that it is based on workable and practical methodologies and not theoretical concepts. An excellent book!"
—D. H. Stamatis, Ph.D., CQE, CMfgE, MSSBB, President of Contemporary Consultants, Co., Professor of Economics and Statistics, ANHUI University of Finance and Economics in Bengbu, ANHUI, China

"Managers too often predict demand emotionally despite the importance of the decisions being made as a result of good fact-based analysis. Subsequently, forecasts are often extrapolations of historical volume trends, rather than well-thought-out projections. This has been the accepted process for strategic forecasting and planning for the past 30 years. This is the first book that provides a proven framework for business executives to translate fact-based decisions into viable strategic forecasts."
—Charles Chase, Principal Industry Consultant, Supply Chain Global Practice, SAS Institute Inc.

"Understanding how to transform data into useful information is critical in a world of ever increasing noise. This is an essential reference book for organizations considering entering new markets, evaluating product portfolio mix, or developing new products. It serves as a comprehensive resource of the critical methods and techniques needed to enable strategic decisions."
—Demetra Simos Paguio, Former Marketing and Sales Operations Manager, Ryerson

"Overall, there is a lot of valuable information in Navigating Strategic Decisions and individuals involved in long-term planning for business growth, including new product development, will find this book to be a good reference. For extended discussion, this book was featured in The Innovator’s Book Club, a LinkedIn group."
—Book Review by Teresa Jurgens-Kowal, PhD, NPDP, appearing on PDMA.org, June 16, 2015