Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting, 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Navigating Strategic Decisions

The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting, 1st Edition

By John E. Triantis

Productivity Press

435 pages | 63 B/W Illus.

Purchasing Options:$ = USD
Hardback: 9781466585980
pub: 2013-06-12
SAVE ~$23.00
Currently out of stock
$115.00
$92.00
x
eBook (VitalSource) : 9781315300436
pub: 2013-06-12
from $57.50


FREE Standard Shipping!

Description

Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions.

Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to:

  • Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects
  • Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications
  • Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices
  • Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty
  • Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers
  • Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected

This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.

Reviews

"An indispensable guide for strategic project managers and a must book for strategic planners aspiring to advance their careers and become trusted advisors to decision makers, written by an expert in strategic decision forecasting as a comprehensive practical guide that lays the foundations toward competitive advantage. It will revolutionize your company’s strategic thinking by showing how to bring together methods, processes, and techniques toward sound analysis, evaluation, and forecasting for superior strategic decisions."

—George S. Vozikis, PhD, Director, Institute for Family Business, Edward Reighard Endowed Chair for Management (ret.), Department of Management, Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno

"Already a published authority on managing successful acquisition and joint venture projects, John Triantis has now focused on marking out a realistic, yet crucial, role for strategic forecasters participating in strategic projects. Forecasters following his precepts will prove themselves indispensable to the project team, while at the same time contributing to reduced time to decisions, better/sounder decisions, and increased chances of realizing forecasted project values. This is a must book for forecasters aspiring to make a difference in the world of strategic project decisions."

—John K. Hendricks, Former AT&T General Attorney, International M&A and Joint Ventures

"Finally – a book that demonstrates the connection between the art and science of strategic forecasting and successful strategic projects is here! John Triantis uncovers the truths about strategic decisions to everyone in this field and is in the forefront of helping organizations understand the importance of and implement strategic forecasting. All forecasters and decision participants will benefit from John’s 40+ years of hands-on experience and practical insights."

—Hu Song, MD, PhD, Director, Worldwide Business Insights, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, a Johnson & Johnson Company

"Dr. John Triantis is the consummate translator of the vernacular strategic analysis. Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting is written for the professional who deals with both analysis and forecasting for strategic projects. His long experience in the real world allows him to draw from the things that have worked and enables him to make sound recommendations for industry analysts and forecasters. The reader will benefit immensely from the practical insights. The information presented is understandable and transparent. The strength of the book is that it is based on workable and practical methodologies and not theoretical concepts. An excellent book!"

—D. H. Stamatis, Ph.D., CQE, CMfgE, MSSBB, President of Contemporary Consultants, Co., Professor of Economics and Statistics, ANHUI University of Finance and Economics in Bengbu, ANHUI, China

"Managers too often predict demand emotionally despite the importance of the decisions being made as a result of good fact-based analysis. Subsequently, forecasts are often extrapolations of historical volume trends, rather than well-thought-out projections. This has been the accepted process for strategic forecasting and planning for the past 30 years. This is the first book that provides a proven framework for business executives to translate fact-based decisions into viable strategic forecasts."

—Charles Chase, Principal Industry Consultant, Supply Chain Global Practice, SAS Institute Inc.

"Understanding how to transform data into useful information is critical in a world of ever increasing noise. This is an essential reference book for organizations considering entering new markets, evaluating product portfolio mix, or developing new products. It serves as a comprehensive resource of the critical methods and techniques needed to enable strategic decisions."

—Demetra Simos Paguio, Former Marketing and Sales Operations Manager, Ryerson

"Overall, there is a lot of valuable information in Navigating Strategic Decisionsand individuals involved in long-term planning for business growth, including new product development, will find this book to be a good reference. For extended discussion, this book was featured in The Innovator’s Book Club, a LinkedIn group."

—Book Review by Teresa Jurgens-Kowal, PhD, NPDP, appearing on PDMA.org, June 16, 2015

Table of Contents

Introduction

Forecast Types and Their Evolution

Why Are Good Forecasts and SDF Teams Needed?

The Role of SDF Teams and Misconceptions

Uniqueness of the Book and Benefits to the Reader

Structure of the Book and Discussion Topics

Strategic Decision Forecasting

Forecaster Relationships

Focus, Approach, and Methodology

Processes and Practices

Forecast Ownership and Accountability

Organizational Factors

Forecast Performance Measures

Expectations, Analyses, and Functions

Communications

Skills and Qualifications

Knowledge and Project Management

The Promise of Strategic Decision Forecasting

Definition of SDF

What SDF Solutions Are Not Intended for

Purpose and Objectives of SDF

The Need for a New SDF Paradigm

The Focus of SDF

Universal SDF Process Components

Common Uses of SDF Solutions

SDF Team Charter and Structure

The Role of Strategic Decision Forecasters

The Uniqueness of SDF

Benefits and Limitations of SDF

A NEW PARADIGM FOR STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

SDF Organization Business Definition

The Mission of the SDF Team

The Vision of the SDF Team

SDF Team Principles and Values

Project Stakeholders and Functional Links

SDF Goals, Objectives, and Strategies Revisited

Scope of SDF Team Activities and Support Provided

SDF Team Governance

Internal and External SDF Networks

SDF Project and Knowledge Management

SDF Performance Measures

Culture, Mindset, Processes, and Principles

SDF Team Culture

SDF Mindset

SDF Approach

SDF Processes

SDF Principles and Guidelines

SDF Analytical Techniques and Tools

SDF Analytical Concepts and Aids

Anchoring of SDF Analyses and Evaluations

SDF Forecasting Due Diligence

Forecasting Due Diligence Techniques and Tools

SDF Plan and Processes

SDF Methods, Systems, and Implements

SDF Assessment and Implementation Techniques

Forecasting Function Project Management

SDF Solutions, Options, and Recommendations

SDF Performance Measures

SDF Forecast Realization Plan

Institutionalizing Learning and Knowledge

STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING APPLICATIONS

Corporate Policy and Strategy Evaluation

The Current State and Causes of Failures

Particular Needs and Challenges

The Role of the SDF Team

SDF Processes and Techniques

Corporate Strategy Evaluation

Corporate Policy Evaluation

SDF Techniques and Tools

Beneficial Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Examples of Useful Practices and Factors

SDF Team Contributions

New Product Development

Current State and Causes of Failures

SDF Approach, Processes, and Techniques

Forecasting for New Product and Service Development

New Technology Development Forecasting

SDF Team Analyses and Evaluations

Idea, Discovery, and Scoping Stage and Idea and Feasibility Screen

Business Case Stage and Go to Development and Testing Gate

Develop, Test, and Validate Stage and Go to Launch and Implement Gate

Post New Product Launch Review

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

New Market or Business Entry

The Current State

Special Needs, Issues, and Challenges

SDF Approach and Processes

SDF Analyses, Evaluations, and Techniques

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

SDF Techniques and Tools

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

M&A and Joint Venture Projects

The Current State

M&A and JV Challenges and Issues

SDF Approach and Processes

SDF Tools and Techniques

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

Product and Technology Licensing

The Current State and Causes of Failures

SDF Approach, Processes, and Evaluations

SDF Approach and Processes

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

SDF Techniques and Tools

Quantitative Technological Forecasting Techniques

Judgmental Technological Forecasting Techniques

Integrative Technological Forecasting Techniques

Success Factors and Beneficial Practices

Project Success Factors

Beneficial Practices

Corporate Reorganizations and Turnarounds

Current State and Causes of Failures

SDF Approach and Techniques

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices

SDF Team Contributions

Uncertainty and Risk Management

The Current State

Unique Issues and Challenges

SDF Approach and Techniques

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices

SDF Team Contributions

Major Capex and Project Financing

Current State

Particular Challenges and Issues

SDF Approach and Participation

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

Product Portfolio Management

The Current State

Particular Issues and Challenges

SDF Approach and Processes

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

SDF Tools and Techniques

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

Negotiations and Investor Relations Support

Independent Validation and Verification

Negotiations Support

Investor Relations Support

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

Future-State Realization Planning

Current State, Issues, and Challenges

SDF Approach, Processes, and Tools

SDF Analyses and Evaluations

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

Business Cases, Plans, and Operational Targets

Current State, Issues, and Challenges

SDF Approach and Processes

Business Case Support

Business Plan Support

Target Development Support

Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

Sound Practices and Success Factors

SDF Team Contributions

IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

Best-in-Class Strategic Forecasting Teams

Governance of SDF Teams

Forecaster Responsibilities and Qualifications

Best-in-Class Attributes and Practices

SDF Process and Principles

SDF Performance Factors and Measures

Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

SDF Organization Implementation Challenges

Attitudes and Organizational Mindset

Organizational Politics

Broad Scope and Responsibilities

Forecast Quality and Ownership of Forecast

Organization Knowledge Gaps

Availability of Qualified SDF Team Members

Outsourcing of Strategic Decision Forecasts

Management and Client Reassignments

Resource Constraints and Cost–Benefit Considerations

Implementing Processes and Performance Measures

Summary and Conclusions

Conditions for Successful SDF Applications

Recurring Themes in Successful Strategic Projects

Conclusions

Bibliography

Index

About the Originator

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
BUS027000
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Finance
BUS042000
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Management Science
MAT029000
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General