Originally published in 1985. Mathematical methods and models to facilitate the understanding of the processes of economic dynamics and prediction were refined considerably over the period before this book was written. The field had grown; and many of the techniques involved became extremely complicated. Areas of particular interest include optimal control, non-linear models, game-theoretic approaches, demand analysis and time-series forecasting. This book presents a critical appraisal of developments and identifies potentially productive new directions for research. It synthesises work from mathematics, statistics and economics and includes a thorough analysis of the relationship between system understanding and predictability.
Table of Contents
Preface 1. Introduction David F. Batten Part 1: Stabilization and Control 2. Feedback and Adaptive Control for Uncertain Dynamical Systems George Leitmann 3. Modelling and Optimal Control of Random Walk Processes in Economics John M. Blatt 4. Stabilization and Optimal Management in the Housing Industry Paul F. Lesse and Janislaw M. Skowronski 5. Modelling the Supply-Demand Dynamics of a Slowly Renewable Resource David F. Batten and Paul F. Lesse Part 2: Differential Games 6. A Competitive Differential Game of Harvesting Uncertain Resources Janislaw M. Skowronski 7. Identification of Stock and System Parameters in a Pareto Harvesting Game of Two Players Glen J. Crouch and Janislaw M. Skowronski Part 3: Dynamic Macroeconomic Models 8. The Solution Procedure for the ORANI Model Explained by a Simple Example Peter B. Dixon 9. Analysis of the Effects of Time Lags and Nonlinearities in a Macroeconomic Model Incorporating the Government Budget Constraint Carl Chiarella Part 4: Time Series Analysis and Econometrics 10. Iterative Fitting of a Time Series Model Bruce D. Craven 11. The State Space Software SARAS Forecasts Better than the Box-Jenkins Method Keshav P. Vishwakarma 12. Electricity Demand Modelling William A. Donnelly