Section 1: Insights from the Past: Theory, Intelligence, and Policy 1. 'Nuclear Proliferation over the Next Decade: Causes, Warning Signs, and Policy Responses' 2. 'Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field' 3. 'Anticipating Nuclear Proliferation: Insights from the Past' 4. 'Countering Proliferation: A Baker’s Dozen Policy Insights from Past Wins, Losses, and Draws' 5. 'Identifying Nuclear Aspirants and their Pathways to the Bomb' Section 2: Past Cases of Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Reversal 6. 'Nuclear Proliferation Motivations: Lessons from Pakistan' 7. 'South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Policies' 8. 'Lessons Learned from Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons' 9. 'Nuclear U-Turns: Learning from South Korean and Taiwanese Rollback' 10. 'Egypt’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Lessons Learned' Section 3: Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks 11. 'Nuclear Proliferation in Europe: Could It Still Happen? 12. 'The Future of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East' 13. 'Future Nuclear Proliferation Scenarios in Northeast Asia' 14. 'Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Southeast Asia, 2006-2016' 15. 'Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006-2016' Section 3: New Dynamics in the Proliferation Environment 16. 'The Nuclear Energy Market and the Nonproliferation Regime' 17. 'Peering into the Abyss: Non-State Actors and the 2016 Proliferation Environment'
Biography
Peter R. Lavoy is the National Intelligence Officer for South Asia in the U.S. National Intelligence Council. This book was prepared when he was Director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School.
