Operational Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response for Multi-Scale Flood Risks in Developing Cities: 1st Edition (Paperback) book cover

Operational Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response for Multi-Scale Flood Risks in Developing Cities

1st Edition

By María Carolina Rogelis

CRC Press

200 pages

Purchasing Options:$ = USD
Paperback: 9781138030039
pub: 2016-07-25
$83.95
x

FREE Standard Shipping!

Description

The aim of this book is to contribute to understanding risk knowledge and to forecasting components of early flood warning, particularly in the environment of tropical high mountains in developing cities. This research covers a challenge, taking into account the persistent lack of data, limited resources and often complex climatic, hydrologic and hydraulic conditions. In this research, a regional method is proposed for assessing flash flood susceptibility and for identifying debris flow predisposition at the watershed scale.

An indication of hazard is obtained from the flash flood susceptibility analysis and continually, the vulnerability and an indication of flood risk at watershed scale was obtained. Based on risk analyses, the research follows the modelling steps for flood forecasting development. Input precipitation is addressed in the environment of complex topography commonly found in mountainous tropical areas. A distributed model, a semi-distributed model and a lumped model were all used to simulate the discharges of a tropical high mountain basin with a páramo upper basin. Performance analysis and diagnostics were carried out in order to identify the most appropriate model for the study area for flood early warning. Finally, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to explore the added value of numerical weather models for flood early warning in a páramo area.

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

1.2 Scope of the thesis

1.3 Outline of the thesis

2 Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis in mountainous peri-urban areas through morphometric and land cover indicators

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Methods and Data

2.2.1 Study Area

2.2.2 Methodology

2.2.2.1 Development of the morphometric indicator

2.2.2.2 Development of the land cover indicator

2.2.2.3 Development of a composite susceptibility index

2.3 Results

2.3.1 Estimation of the morphometric indicator for the study area

2.3.1.1 Morphometric indicator model

2.3.1.2 Assessment of appropriateness of the morphometric indicator

2.3.2 Land cover indicator

2.3.3 Combination of indicators to obtain a final susceptibility index

2.4 Discussion

2.4.1 Morphometric indicator

2.4.2 Debris flow propagation

2.4.3 Land cover indicator, composite susceptibility index and comparison of results

2.5 Conclusions

3 Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Conceptualization of Vulnerability

3.3 Methods and Data

3.3.1 Study Area

3.3.2 Methodology

3.3.2.1 Delineation of exposure areas

3.3.2.2 Choice of indicators and principal component analysis for vulnerability assessment

3.3.2.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator

3.3.2.4 Categories of recorded damage in the study area

3.3.2.5 Prioritization of watersheds

3.4 Results

3.4.1 Exposure Areas

3.4.2 Socio-economic fragility indicators

3.4.3 Lack of Resilience and coping capacity indicators

3.4.4 Physical exposure indicators

3.4.5 Vulnerability indicator

3.4.6 Prioritization of watersheds according to the qualitative risk indicator and comparison with damage records

3.4.7 Sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability indicator

3.5 Discussion

3.5.1 Exposure areas

3.5.2 Representativeness and relative importance of indicators

3.5.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator

3.5.4 Usefulness of the prioritization indicator

3.6 Conclusions

4 Spatial interpolation for real-time rainfall field estimation in areas with complex topography

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Methods and Data

4.2.1 Study Area

4.2.2 Precipitation data

4.2.3 Geostatistical interpolation procedure

4.2.3.1 Interpolation techniques

4.2.3.2 Topographic parameters as secondary variables

4.2.3.3 Cross validation and statistical criteria of comparison

4.2.3.4 Conditional Simulations

4.3 Results

4.3.1 Exploratory data analysis

4.3.2 Classification of daily datasets

4.3.3 Variogramanalysis

4.3.4 Analysis of performance of the interpolators for the individual storms

4.3.5 Analysis of performance of the interpolators using the climatological variograms and applicability of the climatological variograms for individual event rainfall field generation

4.3.6 Analysis of secondary variables

4.3.7 Analysis of uncertainty in estimates of storm volumes

4.4 Discussion

4.4.1 Characteristics of the rainfall fields

4.4.2 Performance of the climatological variograms and applicability to the generation of individual event rainfall fields

4.4.3 Choice between KED and OK

4.4.4 Volumetric comparison

4.5 Conclusions

5 Hydrological model assessment for flood early warning in a tropical high mountain basin 102

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Study Area

5.3 Methods

5.3.1 Modelling set up and calibration

5.3.1.1 Description of themodels

5.3.1.2 Hydrometeorological forcing

5.3.1.3 Model Configuration and Calibration

5.3.2 Performance analysis and diagnostics

5.3.3 Analysis of precipitation input uncertainty and comparison of models

5.4 Results

5.4.1 Model calibration

5.4.1.1 KGE for HECHMSSMA, TOPMODEL and TETIS

5.4.2 Comparison of water balance fluxes

5.4.3 Signature measures from the flow duration curve (FDC)

5.4.4 Rainfall ensemble analysis, input precipitation uncertainty

5.4.5 Comparison ofmodel ensembles

5.5 Discussion

5.5.1 Model calibration and performance

5.5.1.1 Water balance fluxes and hydrometeorological forcing

5.5.1.2 Pixel size and flux variation for the TOPMODEL and TETIS

5.5.1.3 HECHMSSMA calibration results and fluxes

5.5.1.4 Flow duration curve and signatures

5.5.2 Comparison of discharge ensembles

5.6 Conclusions

6 Streamflow forecasts fromWRF precipitation for flood early warning in tropical mountain areas

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Methods and data

6.2.1 Study Area

6.2.2 WRF model data and observed rainfall fields

6.2.3 Methodology

6.2.3.1 Generation of Precipitation Forecasts

6.2.3.2 Verification of forecasts

6.3 Results

6.3.1 Bias correction of precipitation forecasts through DBS

6.3.2 Quantile regressionmodel

6.3.3 Verification of precipitation forecasts

6.3.4 Verification of deterministic precipitation forecasts and ensemble mean

6.3.5 Verification of deterministic discharge forecasts and ensemble mean

6.3.6 Verification of probabilistic forecasts

6.3.7 Discussion

6.3.7.1 Evaluating precipitation forecasts from the WRF model

6.3.7.2 Evaluating discharge forecast

6.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Conclusions

7.1.1 Regional Flood risk analysis

7.1.2 Hydrometeorological inputs

7.1.3 Hydrological models for flood early warning

7.2 Added value of the numerical weather prediction model WRF in the flood forecasting system

7.3 Recommendations

About the Author

Mariìa Carolina Rogelis was born in Bogota, Colombia in 1977. She obtained a BSc. in Civil Engineering (1999) from The Universidad Nacional de Colombia, a MEng. Water resources Management (2001) from Los Andes University (Bogotaì – Colombia) and a MSc. Hydraulic Engineering – River Basin Development (with distinction, 2004) from UNESCO-IHE Delft, the Netherlands. In 2009, she started as a PhD student at UNESCO-IHE. Mrs. Rogelis worked in flood management and flood forecasting systems at the Direccioìn de Prevencioìn y Atencioìn de Emergencias de Bogotaì for seven years. Since 2011 she works as a consultant in the field of flood risk management for The World Bank and Colombian companies.

About the Series

IHE Delft PhD Thesis Series

IHE Delft PhD programme leads to a deepening of a field of specialisation. PhD fellows do scientific research, often with conclusions that directly influence their region. At IHE Delft, PhD researchers from around the world participate in problem-focused and solution-oriented research on development issues, resulting in an inspiring research environment. PhD fellows work together with other researchers from many countries dealing with topics related to water and the environment.

PhD research is often carried out in the ‘sandwich’ model. Preparation and final reporting – the first and last portion of the programme – are carried out in Delft, while actual research is done in the fellow’s home country, under co-supervision of a local institute. Regular contacts with the promotor are maintained through visits and long-distance communication. This enables researchers to employ solutions directly to problems in their geographical region.

IHE Delft PhD degrees are awarded jointly with a university. The degrees are highly valued and fully recognised in all parts of the world.

Learn more…

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
TEC009020
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Civil / General
TEC009110
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Civil / Dams & Reservoirs
TEC010030
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Environmental / Water Supply