Uncertainty is certain to be found in structural engineering, making it crucial to structure design. This book covers three competing philosophies behind structural safety and reliability: probabilistic analysis, fuzzy-sets based treatments, and the convex approach. Explaining the theory behind probabilistic analysis, fuzzy-sets based treatments, and the convex approach in detail, alongside their implementation, use and benefits, the book compares and contrasts these methods, enabling the reader to solve problems associated with uncertainty. These uncertainty issues can be seen in the examples of civil engineering structures and the risk of earthquakes, the impact of rough seas on a ship, and the problem of turbulence for aerospace vehicles. Building on the authors’ years of experience in the field, the book is an essential guide to structural uncertainty. Topics covered in the book include properties of materials and their structural deterioration, safety factor and reliability, risk evaluation and loads and their combinations. The book will be of interest to students and professionals in the field of aerospace, civil, mechanical, marine and ocean engineering.
Table of Contents
Preface 1 Introduction 2. Historical Notes 2.1. History of safety factors 2.2. Development of the Theory of Structural Reliability 2.3. The Connection between Ancient Sparta and the Failure Rate 3. Safety Factor and Reliability index 3.1. Features of Failure and Principles of Design 3.2. Safety Factor 3.3. Reliability Index and Partial Factors Method 3.4. Importance factor 3.5. Concept of Equal Reliability 3.5a. Calibration of the Model Partial Factor 3.5b. Reliability of Transmission Lines 3.6. Development of Reliability-Based Design Approach 4. Evaluation of Failure Probability 4.1. General Comments 4.2. “Hot Point” Method 4.3. Monte-Carlo Method 4.3a Monte-Carlo Technique 4.3b Monte-Carlo Method for Stratified Modeling Samples 4.4. Simulation Method 4.5. Direct Integration of Distribution Function 4.6. Influence of Failure Boundary Curvature on Reliability 4.7. Implementation of Reliability Theory in Structural Design 5. Alternative Definitions of the Fuzzy Safety Factor 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Fuzzy sets-based safety factor 6. Convex Models of Uncertainty 6.1. Introductory Comments 6.2 Sensitivity of Failure Probability 6.3 Remarks on Convex Modeling of Uncertainty 6.4 “Worst-Case” Probabilistic Safety Factor 6.5 Which Concept Is More Feasible: Non-Probabilistic Reliability or Convex Safety Factor? 6.6 Concluding Comments on How to Treat Uncertainty in a Given Situation 7. Systems and Components 7.1 Conditionality of Concept 7.2. Connection of Components in Series 7.3. Parallel Connection of Brittle Components 7.4. Dynamic Effect in Brittle Systems 7.5. Parallel Connection of Plastic Components 7.6. Failure probability of multi-element systems 7.7. Probabilistic limit equilibrium method 8. Loads and Their Combinations 8.1. Classification 8.2. Statistical Models of Variable Actions 8.3. Climatic Actions on Structures 8.4. Consideration of Random Wind Speed Directions 8.5. Loads on Building Floors 8.6. Combination of Loads as Random Values 8.7. Combination of Extreme Values of Loads 8.8. Combination of Loads in the Form of Markov Process 9. Properties of Materials and Structural Deterioration 9.1. General Comments 9.2. Bayesian Treatment in Analysis of Mechanical Properties 9.3. Smoothing of Experimental Data 9.4. Reliability of Corroding Structures 10. Risk Evaluation and Optimal Probabilistic Design 10.1. Acceptable Risk 10.2. Optimization of Reliability Index 10.3. Optimization of Protected Structures 10.4. Optimization of Multiplex Systems 10.5. Optimal Allocation of Protective Resources of Structures 10.6. Mathematical Model of Public Opinion 11.Natural Disasters and Structural Survivability 11.1. Disaster Prediction Problems 11.2. Statistical Evaluation of Natural Disasters 11.3. Safety Criteria of Unique Structures 11.4. Survivability of Structural Systems 11.5. Stochastic Analysis of Dynamic Instability 11.6. Effects of Uneven Footing Settlement 12. Conclusion Appendix. Definitions for Terms used in the Book References Author Index
Isaac Elishakoff is Professor at Florida Atlantic University. Previously ASME distinguished lecturer, he has published over 370 papers and is associate editor of four journals. Vladimir Razier is at FC&T Corporation in San Diego California, after working as Professor in the Department of Structural Mechanics at Moscow State Engineering University.