This thought-provoking study measures and critically examines the effects that an averageÂ population growth rate of 2.8% could have on the development of the Arab Gulf States.Â ItÂ questions the ability of Gulf governments toÂ continue providing relatively high standards ofÂ education, health and employment under conditions of rapid population growth, an undiversified economic base, and a tribal political framework.Â Â Within this context, population growth is identified as one important variable that hinders long-term development. The book will appeal to all those interested in the Middle East, demography, development and sociology.
'This book identifies one of the gravest threats to stability in the Arab Gulf states. With populations expanding much faster than per capita GDP, the Gulf States are time bombs of social and economic discontent waiting to go off. The author combines local knowledge, a demographer's tools, and a financial analyst's grasp of data to provide a lucid analysis of this critical dilemma.' Dr Eugene L.Rogan, St Antony's College, University of Oxford, UK 'This book is a welcome addition to the literature on population and development. It elegantly links demography, human capital development, and employment opportunities and productivity for Gulf nationals…This is an informative and interesting book…' Population Studies '…a welcome addition to demographic analysis in the arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, a subject that remains underdeveloped - even neglected - in research…a credible analysis based on available data.' International Journal of Middle East Studies 'This is a scholarly, well-written, easy to read and comprehensive book. The monograph would appeal not only to specialists in the areas of demography, development, population economics and labour migration, but also to non-specialists and policy makers who are interested in the Middle East and the Gulf region, and would find it informative and interesting.' Journal of Population Reseach
Contents: Demographic Components of Gulf Populations: The non-nationals: transient migrants or adopted siblings?; The Gulf epidemiological transition; Explaining fertility, theoretically; Gulf fertility: trends, causes and expectations. Public Services and Employment in the Arab Gulf States: Public services in the Gulf states; The Gulf labour force. Towards 2025: The Alternative Scenarios: Alternative scenario projections: underlying assumptions; Towards 2025: public services provision; Towards 2025: human resources in the Gulf states; The need for population management; Bibliography; Index.