1st Edition

Probability is All We Have
Uncertainties, Delays, and Environmental Policy Making





ISBN 9780367190293
Published April 7, 2019 by Routledge
310 Pages

USD $130.00

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Book Description

First published in 1990. In this study, the author suggests ways that policy-makers can think about environmental policy choice that responds to the importance of uncertainty and delay. Hammitt describes several tools for environmental policy analysis and illustrates their application to important policy issues.

In the first part of the book, dealing with stratospheric-ozone depletion, the author describes techniques for accommodating outcome uncertainties. The second part of the study considers the health risks associated with pesticide residues on food. The final section addresses the issue of potential global climate change, and describes how the tools explored can be applied to this new challenge.

This book should be of greatest interest to academic, government, and industry analysts and others concerned with improving methods for environmental-policy making.

Table of Contents

Preface;  Acknowledgements;  Figures;  Tables;  1. Outcomes and Value Uncertainty in Environmental Policy;  Part One: Outcome Uncertainty: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion;  2. The Policy Problem  3. Probability-Based Scenarios  4. The Distribution of the Score Function  5. Subjective Marginal Probability Distributions for Potential Ozone Depleters  6. Production and Emission Scenarios  7. Conclusions  8. Timing Responses to Potential Stratospheric Ozone Depletion  9. The Decision Framework  10. Results and Sensitivity Analysis  11. Conclusions;  Part Two: Value Uncertainty: Food-Borne Risk;  12. Valuing Health Risks  13. Choosing Among Potentially Hazardous Floods  14. Willingness to Pay for Organically Grown Foods  15. Avoided Risk  16. Willingness to Pay for Risk Reductions  17. Conclusions;  Part Three: Extensions: Global Climate Change;  18. Applying the Tools to Potential Climate Change;  Notes;  Bibliography

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