This book is the outgrowth of a collaborative effort by a small group of national security analysts associated with the Institute forNational Strategic Studies of the National Defense University,government officials responsible for pondering defense and foreign policy issues, and academics with long experience in Middle Eastern affairs. In the past several years these scholars, policy analysts, and military planners have been focusing on the impact on U.S. goals and interests in the Middle East of three seminal events-the ending of the cold war, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the invasion of Kuwaitby Saddam Husayn and the subsequent Gulf War. The authors'individual studies have been nourished by frequent intellectual exchanges with one another and by their participation in numerous academic meetings designed to explore the future of U.S. relations with the Middle East.
Preface -- Introduction /William Lewis and Phebe Marr -- 1. Moscow and the Middle East in the 1990s /Melvin Goodman -- 2. Oil in the 1990s: The Gulf Dominant /William C. Ramsay -- 3. The Military Balance: Change or Stasis? /William Lewis -- 4. The Arab-Israeli Conflict in the 1990s: Prospects for a Settlement /William Quandt -- 5. The Pers~ Gulf After the Storm /Phebe Marr -- 6. Hazards to Middle East Stability in the 1990s: Economics, Population, and Water /Thomas Naff -- 7. Beyond Geopolitics: Ethnic and Sectarian Conflict Elimination in the Middle East and North Africa /Abdul Aziz Said -- 8. Islamic Movements, Democratization,and U.S. Foreign Policy /John L. Esposito -- 9. Strategies for an Era of Uncertainty: The U.S. Policy Agenda /Phebe Marr -- About the Book -- About the Editors and Contributors -- Index.