This book is the outgrowth of a collaborative effort by a small group of national security analysts associated with the Institute forNational Strategic Studies of the National Defense University,government officials responsible for pondering defense and foreign policy issues, and academics with long experience in Middle Eastern affairs. In the past several years these scholars, policy analysts, and military planners have been focusing on the impact on U.S. goals and interests in the Middle East of three seminal events-the ending of the cold war, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the invasion of Kuwaitby Saddam Husayn and the subsequent Gulf War. The authors'individual studies have been nourished by frequent intellectual exchanges with one another and by their participation in numerous academic meetings designed to explore the future of U.S. relations with the Middle East.
Table of Contents
Preface -- Introduction /William Lewis and Phebe Marr -- 1. Moscow and the Middle East in the 1990s /Melvin Goodman -- 2. Oil in the 1990s: The Gulf Dominant /William C. Ramsay -- 3. The Military Balance: Change or Stasis? /William Lewis -- 4. The Arab-Israeli Conflict in the 1990s: Prospects for a Settlement /William Quandt -- 5. The Pers~ Gulf After the Storm /Phebe Marr -- 6. Hazards to Middle East Stability in the 1990s: Economics, Population, and Water /Thomas Naff -- 7. Beyond Geopolitics: Ethnic and Sectarian Conflict Elimination in the Middle East and North Africa /Abdul Aziz Said -- 8. Islamic Movements, Democratization,and U.S. Foreign Policy /John L. Esposito -- 9. Strategies for an Era of Uncertainty: The U.S. Policy Agenda /Phebe Marr -- About the Book -- About the Editors and Contributors -- Index.
Phebe Marr is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University and has spent thirty years as a scholar and analyst of the Middle East and Southwest Asia. She has taught at the University of Tennessee and California State University, Stanislau, chaired the Near East North Africa program at the Foreign Service Institute, and worked as a research analyst for the Arabian American Oil Company in Saudi Arabia. She has published widely on the Persian Gulf and is the author of The Modern History of Iraq (1985). William Lewis is the Director of Security Policy Studies and a Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. He has written widely on European and Middle Eastern security affairs, particularly on arms transfers and weapons proliferation in the Third World. He is a specialist on North Africa, with emphasis on Libya, and has served in the State Department in various posts dealing with security and defense policy.