1st Edition
Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends
Based on the author’s 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.
The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication.
Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.
Introduction and Basic Definitions
Introduction
Importance of Risk Analysis
Elements and Types of Risk Analysis
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
Risk Communication
References
Elements of Risk Assessment
Types of Risk Assessment
Risk, Hazard, Performance and Engineering Risk Assessment
Exercises
References
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Introduction
Steps in Concluding a Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Strength of PRA
Scenario and Logic Modeling, Development and Quantification
Modeling of Dependent Failures in Risk Assessment
A Simple Example of PRA
Exercises
Performance Assessment Data and Modeling
Introduction
Active Hardware Performance Assessment
Statistical Data Analysis for Hardware Items
Availability as a Measure of Performance for Repairable Hardware Items
Classical Parameter Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Bayesian Parameters Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Performance of Passive and Some Active Hazard Barriers through Physics and Engineering of Failure Modeling
Software Performance Assessment
Human Reliability Analysis
Expert Opinion in Risk Assessment and Performance Assessment
Exercises
References
Uncertainty Analysis
Introduction
Types of Uncertainty
Measures of Uncertainty
Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Comparison of Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Graphic Representation of Uncertainty
Exercises
References
Identifying, Ranking and Predicting Contributors to Risk
Introduction
Importance Ranking in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Importance Measures in Success Risk Assessment
A Comprehensive Example of Importance Measure Application
Consideration of Uncertainties in Importance Measures Used for Risk-Based Ranking
Uncertainty Importance Measures
Precursor Analysis
Exercises
References
Representation of Risk Values and Risk Acceptances Criteria
Introduction
Representation of Risk Results
Health and Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria
Economic Risk and Performance Acceptance Criteria
Exercises
References
Decision Making Techniques Using Risk Information
Introduction
Economic Methods in Risk Analysis
Non-Economic Techniques
Exercises
Risk Communication
Introduction
Forms of Communication
The Basic Rules of Risk Communication
Elements of Effective Risk Communication
Characteristics of an Effective Risk Communication
Risk Perception
Exercises
References
Appendix A: Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics
Appendix B: Statistical Tables
Biography
Mohammad Modarres
“… this book contains the most used procedures and practices particularly in conducting probabilistic risk assessments of complex systems such nuclear power plants. One of the special feature of this gook is the inclusion of several worked out examples in the text and also a large number of exercises at the end of each chapters. This feature makes it very useful for the undergraduate, graduate students, who would like to study the subject of risk modeling, assessment and management as a part of their curricula. … the reviewer would like to recommend this book to all those practicing engineers, students, teachers, and researchers, who would like to make in depth study of the probabilistic risk assessment and associated problems and are looking for their solutions. This is a most comprehensive treatment of the subject.”
— K. B. Misra, in International Journal of Performability Engineering, (IJPE), July 2006
