Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author covers everything from basic theory and key computational algorithms to data needs, sources, and collection. He emphasizes practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each to help readers translate the discussed techniques into real-world solutions.
This Second Edition:
- Introduces the topic of risk finance
- Incorporates homeland security applications throughout
- Offers additional material on predictive risk management
- Includes a wealth of new and updated end-of-chapter problems
- Delivers a complementary mix of theoretical background and risk methods
- Brings together engineering and economics on balanced terms to enable appropriate decision making
- Presents performance segregation and aggregation within a risk framework
- Contains contemporary case studies, such as protecting hurricane-prone regions and critical infrastructure
- Provides 320+ tables and figures, over 110 diverse examples, numerous end-of-book references, and a bibliography
Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk management, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition relates underlying concepts to everyday applications, ensuring solid understanding and use of the methods of risk analysis.
Introduction
Societal Needs
Risk Analysis
System Framework
Knowledge and Ignorance
Exercise Problems
Risk Analysis Methods
Introduction
Risk Terminology
Risk Assessment
Risk Management and Control
Risk Communication
Exercise Problems
System Definition and Structure
Introduction
System Definition Models
Hierarchical Definitions of Systems
System Complexity
Exercise Problems
Reliability Assessment
Introduction
Analytical Performance-Based Reliability Assessment
Empirical Reliability Analysis Using Life Data
Bayesian Methods
Reliability Analysis of Systems
Exercise Problems
Failure Consequences and Severity
Introduction
Analytical Consequence and Severity Assessment
Real Property Damage
Loss of Human Life
Injuries
Indirect Losses
Public Health and Ecological Damages
Exercise Problems
Engineering Economics and Finance
Introduction
Fundamental Economic Concepts
Cash-Flow Diagrams
Interest Formulae
Economic Equivalence Involving Interest
Economic Equivalence and Inflation
Economic Analysis of Alternatives
Exercise Problems
Risk Control Methods
Introduction
Philosophies of Risk Control
Risk Aversion in Investment Decisions
Risk Homeostasis
Insurance for Loss Control and Risk Transfer
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Risk-Based Maintenance Management
Exercise Problems
Data for Risk Studies
Introduction
Data Sources
Databases
Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Model Modification Based on Available Data
Failure Data Sources
Exercise Problems
Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics
Sample Spaces, Sets, and Events
Mathematics of Probability
Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
Failure Data
References and Bibliography
Index
Biography
Bilal M. Ayyub is professor of civil and environmental engineering at University of Maryland, College Park and director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management at A. James Clark School of Engineering. Highly decorated and widely published, he holds degrees from Kuwait University and the Georgia Institute of Technology. A fellow of ASCE, ASME, SRA, and SNAME, as well as a senior member of IEEE, he has completed research and development projects for entities including the National Science Foundation, U.S. Air Force, U.S. Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers, Navy, Department of Homeland Security, and private insurance and engineering firms.
Praise for the First Edition
"This book ambitiously tackles risk analysis from the ground up. … an excellent reference for individuals studying in a variety of risk-related disciplines. … enlightening [examples]…attractive to students approaching risk studies from a variety of substantive backgrounds. … Advanced students are likely to find Ayyub's treatments…exceedingly valuable."
—Journal of the American Statistical Association, June 2004, Vol. 99, No. 466"… a good textbook and reference. The mix of engineering and economics is well balanced. … Valuable for students after college and useful for professional engineers."
—Technometrics, August 2004, Vol. 46, No. 3Praise for the Second Edition
"… one of a kind in the market. … I am not aware of books that cover the subject in as comprehensive a manner."
—Professor Nii O. Attoh-Okine, University of Delaware, Newark, USA
