Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.
Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.
This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events.
1. Introduction, 2. The risk concept, 3. Variation, knowledge, uncertainty, surprises and black swans, 4. Risk assessment, 5. Risk management