A combination of future change pressures - including unprecedented growth in population, urbanization, socio-economic, and climate change - are imposing new stresses on the earth’s resources and society’s ability to maintain or improve infrastructure systems and environmental quality. While planning for sustainability, we need to make decisions considering those future change pressures, which are often uncertain and generate various risks in systems. These decisions determine the long-term sustainability of a system. The main outcomes of this research are a novel framework for risk and uncertainty analysis, a hybrid approach of uncertainty analysis, and fuzzy set theory based multi-criteria analysis method for decision-making.
The developed framework can be applied in any other system without much modification. The algorithms for a hybrid approach to uncertainly analysis are based on both the probability and fuzzy set theory. It can capture both qualitative and quantitative sources of uncertainty in any complex system modelling. The fuzzy set theory based multi-criteria analysis method is supported with a framework that allows quantifying performance and sustainability in a system. Both uncertainty analysis and multi-criteria methods are supported with stand-alone tools that can be coupled with any systems modelling.
The framework, methods, and tools are demonstrated in data surplus case in Birmingham, UK and data scarce case in Kathmandu, Nepal and Mbale Town, Uganda. This thesis demonstrates the effectiveness of the developed framework, methodology, and tools for strategic planning of urban water systems in both data scarce and data limited conditions.
1. Introduction 2. A review on risk and uncertainty analysis and proposed risk assessment framework 3. A hybrid approach of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty modeling 4. Multi-criteria decision-making framework under risk and uncertainty 5. Application of the hybrid approach of uncertainty analysis and MCDM framework in UWS 6. Conclusions and recommendations.
IHE Delft PhD programme leads to a deepening of a field of specialisation. PhD fellows do scientific research, often with conclusions that directly influence their region. At IHE Delft, PhD researchers from around the world participate in problem-focused and solution-oriented research on development issues, resulting in an inspiring research environment. PhD fellows work together with other researchers from many countries dealing with topics related to water and the environment.
PhD research is often carried out in the ‘sandwich’ model. Preparation and final reporting – the first and last portion of the programme – are carried out in Delft, while actual research is done in the fellow’s home country, under co-supervision of a local institute. Regular contacts with the promotor are maintained through visits and long-distance communication. This enables researchers to employ solutions directly to problems in their geographical region.
IHE Delft PhD degrees are awarded jointly with a university. The degrees are highly valued and fully recognised in all parts of the world.