Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis : Beyond the Horizon book cover
1st Edition

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis
Beyond the Horizon

ISBN 9781138001237
Published October 1, 2013 by CRC Press
758 Pages

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Book Description

During the last decade there have been increasing societal concerns over sustainable developments focusing on the conservation of the environment, the welfare and safety of the individual and at the same time the optimal allocation of available natural and financial resources. As a consequence the methods of risk and reliability analysis are becoming increasingly important as decision support tools in various fields of engineering. In this book, the risk and reliability research community looks beyond the horizon. The technology we deploy to fix today’s problems is based on research that started more than two decades ago. What we are doing today should make a difference for tomorrow. Developing innovative new knowledge and applications helps engineers to better play the important role they have for society in establishing the basis for decision making.

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon contains the papers presented at the 22nd European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2013) annual conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The abstracts book (785 pages) + full paper CD-ROM (3426 pages) cover a wide range of topics for which risk analysis forms an indispensable field of knowledge to ensure sufficient safety: Uncertainty Analysis, Accident and Incident Modeling, Human Factors and Human Reliability, System Reliability, Structural Reliability, Safety in Civil Engineering, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Prognostics and System Health Management, Occupational Safety, Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety, and Maintenance Modeling and Applications. Applications in different industrial areas are shown: Natural Hazards, Land Transportation, Aeronautics Aerospace, Chemical and Process Industry, Critical Infrastructures, Manufacturing, Security, Nuclear Industry, Energy, Maritime Transportation, and Information Technology.

Table of Contents

Plenary lectures

Better science does not make decisions easier
B.J.M. Ale

Deep and shallow uncertainty in messaging climate change
R.M. Cooke

Reliability assessment of wind turbines
J.D. Sørensen

Multi layer safety: A generally efficient solution or work for all
J.K. Vrijling

Reliability based structural design
A.C.W.M. Ton Vrouwenvelder

1 Accident and incident modeling

1.1 Aeronautics aerospace

On primitives of causality: From the semantics of agonist and antagonist to models of accident causation and system safety
L. Brevault, F.M. Favaró & J.H. Saleh

Human dependability in space control operations—a HOT perspective
S.O. Johnsen, T. Stene & T.Ø. Kongsvik

1.2 Chemical and process industry

Safety review process—a methodology for qualitative verification of safety measures
E. Alijagic & V.N. Dang

Bird’s accident ratio: The validity within the South African fertiliser manufacturing industry
J. Anderson & J.K. Visser

Thermal behavior of a semibatch reactor during upset conditions as a function of dosing and temperature controller type
S. Copelli, V. Torretta, M. Derudi, R. Rota, C.S. Cattaneo & G. Nano

Case study of tank explosion caused by wastewater without flash point
P. Danihelka, P. Dobes & J. Marek

Observability in depth: Novel safety strategy to complement defense-in-depth for dynamic real-time allocation of defensive resources
F.M. Favaró & J.H. Saleh

Fire and explosion analysis for LNG fuelled ship
K.H. Kim, K.P. Chang, G.H. Han, J.M. Kwak & S.T. Kim

Towards an understanding of information needed when planning offshore activities
S. Sarshar, A.B. Skjerve & S. Haugen

Application of emergency planning criteria for the control of major accident hazards—calculation of the consequences of fire accidents
J. Skřínský, V. Sluka, J. Senčík, M. Pražáková & S. Malý

1.3 Critical infrastructures

Improved nomenclature schemes for Component Fault Trees and State/Event Fault Trees
K.B. Jamboti, C. Gómez, O. Mäckel & P. Liggesmeyer

1.4 Energy

Subsea gas plumes and dispersion above sea
A. Huser, T. Bengherbia, P. Skjetne, J.E. Olsen & W. Postvoll

Analysis of causal factors related to three different event types on the Norwegian continental shelf: Hydrocarbon leaks, lifting incidents and fires in electrical installations
B.A. Mostue, P.C. Sandvik, A. Steen-Hansen & K. Storesund

A new approach to prevention of accidents based on the application of control charts
A.P. Sant’Anna, G.B.A. Lima, L. Aizemberg, P.A. de Almada Garcia & V.C. Rios

1.5 Land transportation

GIS multicriteria pedestrian crossing risk assessment in bus rapid transit
P.P.S. de Souza & I.C.L. Junior

1.6 Maritime transportation

Characterization of chemical release from marine accident—experimental analysis of n-butanol behavior in seawater column
L. Aprin, M. Fuhrer, F. Heymes, P. Slangen, G. Dusserre & S. Le Floch

Comparison of the learning algorithms for evidence-based BBN modeling: A case study on ship grounding accidents
M. Arsham, S. Otto-Ville Edvard, H. Noora, M. Jakub & K. Pentti

Stochastic Coloured Petri Nets as a modelling language for complex Event Trees
O. Nývlt, L. Ferkl & S. Haugen

1.7 Natural hazards

Safety of a domestic LPG tank submitted to a forest fire
F. Heymes, L. Aprin, S. Forestier & G. Dusserre

1.8 Nuclear industry

Application of the Risk-Informed Decision Making process to the moderator subcooling margins issue in a Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR)
A. Bujor, R. Gheorghe, M. El-Hawary, A. El-Jaby, J. Szymanski & P. Wan

1.9 Security

Scenario classes and scenario analyses for chemical disaster emergency planning
M. Endregard & T. Grunnan

Towards a decision support system for disaster management
S. Moehrle

2 Human factors and human reliability

2.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Reliable operations in control centers, an empirical study
A.B. Mohammad, J.P. Johansen & P.G. Almklov

When to worry? The relationship between modeled risk and perceived risk among helicopter pilots
R.J. Bye, R. Ekle, B. Heide, B. Aasprang & S. Antonsen

Control room training and certification for space operations
B.E. Danielsen & T.M. Stene

Monitoring human and organisational factors in spaceflight operations
K. Fossum, C.H. Berg, T.Ø. Kongsvik, P. Almklov & S.O. Johnsen

Tool for collaborative work analysis based on distributed cognition analysis—ATC work case study
S. Inoue, M. Brown, K. Shiomi, S. Moran & K. Nakata

Improving human resilience in space and distributed environments by CRIOP
S.O. Johnsen & T. Stene

2.2 Chemical and process industry

Evaluation of risk communication in regard of SEVESO II Directive implementation in Czech
B. Baudisova, J. Rehacek, J. Dlabka & P. Danihelka

SHERPA: A Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach to modelling and assessing human reliability in complex tasks
D. Embrey

Analysis of organizational factors for Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs)
M. Gajdosz, T. Bedford & S. Howick

Hunting high and low for resilience: Sensitization from the contextual shadows of compliance
T.O. Grøtan

Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation
P.-H. Lin, D. Hanea & B.J.M. Ale

Assessing the quality of collaboration in an Integrated Operations organization
A.B. Skjerve, E. Nystad, G. Rindahl & S. Sarshar

2.3 Critical infrastructures

Achieving compliance through people: Training leaders and supervisors to tackle procedural non-compliance
P. Leach, R. Canham & J. Berman

Safety of patient handover in emergency care—results of a qualitative study
M.A. Sujan & P. Spurgeon

2.4 Energy

Approaches to human error probability data collection: Field studies using expert judgment-based methodologies
D. Embrey

Human reliability—an analysis of proportional success × fails scenarios for adjusting assessment and management risk to reality—applied to hydroeletrical energy generation
C.L.S. Figueirôa, E.M. Assis, G.C. Lima, P.V. Fleming, I. Freitas & A.C. Garcia

Lessons from aviation: Applying threat and error management framework to cases from the offshore drilling industry
S.A. Kvalheim & S. Haugen

Myths and representations in French nuclear history: The impact on decommissioning safety
C. Martin, A. Portelli & F. Guarnieri

Teamwork competence requirements in nuclear power plant control rooms
A.B. Skjerve, M. Kaarstad & L. Holmgren

2.5 Information technology and telecommunications

Writing short alarm messages: A matter of education, training and practice
H.M. Jagtman

2.6 Land transportation

Resilience engineering in railways—results from a systemic accident and event analysis in German railways
M. Arenius & O. Sträter

Patterns of proactive safety behaviors in the transportation sector
C.S. Fugas, S.A. Silva & J.L. Meliá

Influential factors on human performance in railways and their interrelations
T. Lindner, B. Milius, D. Schwencke & K. Lemmer

2.7 Manufacturing

Safety management of safety performance-what factors to measure?
L.J. Bellamy, O.N. Aneziris, I.A. Papazoglou, M. Damen, H.J. Manuel, M. Mud & J.I.H. Oh

The influence of shift work in the use of hearing protection devices
S. Costa & P.M. Arezes

Promoting safety during process variability: A multidisciplinary challenge
A.S.P. Moraes, P.M. Arezes & R. Vasconcelos

2.8 Maritime transportation

The relationship between regulation, safety management systems and safety culture in the maritime industry
T.Ø. Kongsvik, K.V. Størkersen & S. Antonsen

The RMS Titanic disaster seen in the light of risk and safety theories and models
J.I. Håvold

Self Rescue Model-SeReMo-a model to determine the effects of human behaviour and safety measures on the consequences of a hazardous material release-development of the new triage injury model and self-rescue for fire and explosion accidents
I.J.M. Trijssenaar, M.J. van der Horst, M. Simons & R.P. Sterkenburg

Study on the effect of ship-ship communication on anti-collision performance
J.F. Zhang, X.P. Yan, D. Zhang & S. Haugen

2.9 Nuclear industry

Impact of team characteristics on crew performance: An object based modeling and simulation approach
M. Azarkhil & A. Mosleh

Proposals for the establishment of an operating experience feedback organisation
V. Bringaud

Qualitative human event analysis with simulator data by using HuRAM+ and HERA
S.Y. Choi & W. Jung

Interest of combining two human factor approaches for the evaluation of a future teamwork
C. De La Garza, H. Pesme, P. Le Bot & J.-P. Labarthe

Different way of looking at the HRA process
R. Doležal

Human failure event dependency modeling and quantification: A Bayesian network approach
N.J. Ekanem & A. Mosleh

Diagnostic strategy in APR1400
D.Y. Kim & J. Kim

Advanced probabilistic dynamics analysis of fire fighting actions in a Nuclear Power Plant with the MCDET tool
M. Kloos, J. Hartung, J. Peschke & M. Röwekamp

Leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method
H. Liao, K. Groth, S. Stevens-Adams & J. Xing

Nuclear decommissioning: From case-studies to a proposed typology of risk
M.P. de Borde, C. Martin & F. Guarnieri

Performance factors for the analysis of crew responses to Nuclear Power Plant simulated emergencies
J. Park & V.N. Dang

Representation of parameter uncertainty in Bayesian Belief Networks for Human Reliability Analysis
L. Podofillini, D. Pandya & V.N. Dang

A review of the current status of HRA data
S. Prvakova & V.N. Dang

A DFM/ATHEANA human failure analysis of a digital control system for a pressurizer
J.M.O. Pinto, P.F. Frutuoso e Melo & P.L.C. Saldanha

Status and needs on Human Reliability Assessment of complex systems
O. Sträter, M. Arenius & M. Jenerich

2.10 Security

Anticipating the consequences of change on safety performance: A proposed methodological framework
E. Rigaud & T. Cote

3 Maintenance modeling and applications

3.1 Chemical and process industry

A framework for selection of inspection intervals for well barriers
E.B. Abrahamsen & J.T. Selvik

Comparison of strategies for optimal maintenance within utility industries
J.I. Ansell, T.W. Archibald, R. Murray & T. Poole

An algorithm for root cause analysis integration based on OTSM-TRIZ: Complex problemanalysis
C. Nikulin, G. Cascini, P. Viveros, R. Stegmaier & L. Barbera

Maintenance optimisation for integrated planning
H. Rødseth

3.2 Critical infrastructures

Two models of imperfect delayed repair for a continuously monitored system subject to an accumulative deterioration
I.T. Castro & S. Mercier

Road infrastructures for risk management: From regional to local dynamics
S. Freiria, A.O. Tavares & B. Ribeiro

Functional and technical end-of-service estimates for hydraulic structures
M.J. Kallen, R.P. Nicolai, W.D. van der Wiel, A. Willems, E.L.E. van den Dungen & H.E. Klatter

A holistic modelling framework for railway infrastructure asset management
D. Rama & J.D. Andrews

Components replacement decision by survival analysis based on categories of elevator operational parameters
T. Yano, M. Sato & E. Kinoshita

Applying RAMSSHEEP analysis for risk-driven maintenance
W. Wagner & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

Value of monitoring in road network management
M. Zouch, W. Courage & O. Napoles-Morales

3.3 Energy

Trading off asset performance and condition to model strategic maintenance decisions
E. Barlow, M. Revie, T. Bedford & L. Walls

A condition based model using performance data for strategic asset maintenance in a water utility
C. Jirsak, T. Bedford, M. Revie & L. Walls

Analysis of wind and wave data to assess maintenance access to offshore wind farms
J. Dowell, A. Zitrou, L. Walls, T. Bedford & D. Infield

A multi-criteria decision model to determine intervals of preventive maintenance with equipment reliability degradation due to imperfect maintenance
E.M.P. Hidalgo & G.F.M. de Souza

Some contributions of reliability modeling for managerial changes in maintenance policies of physical asset of gas distribution system
G.A.C. Lima, M.H. Carvalho, A. Elias Jr. & S. Rodrigues

Economic and risk replacement model for physical assets in a natural gas distribution’s system
G.A.C. Lima & A.M.T. Filho

Multiobjective optimization of preventive maintenance applied to onshore wind turbines
A.I. Sánchez, S. Martorell, M. Villamizar, I. Martón & S. Carlos

Condition based maintenance for offshore wind turbines: The effects of false alarms from Condition Monitoring systems
A. May & D. McMillan

Influence of logistic strategies on the availability and maintenance costs of an offshore wind turbine
F.P. Santos, A.P. Teixeira & C.G. Soares

Modeling the relationship between wind turbine failure modes and the environment
G. Wilson & D. McMillan

A reactive multi-component maintenance policy for offshore wind turbines
W. Zhu, M. Fouladirad & C. Bérenguer

3.4 Information technology and telecommunications

Maintenance analysis and optimization of a distribution network from practice
R. Briš, R. Goňo & S. Rusek

Achieving high availability levels of a deteriorating system by optimizing condition based maintenance policies
A.N. Platis, V.P. Koutras & S. Malefaki

3.5 Land transportation

Application of advanced programming production tools to maintenance services scheduling
C.L.S. Figueirôa

A prognostic algorithm based on probabilistic graphical models for a periodically observable system
J. Foulliaron, L. Bouillaut, P. Aknin, A. Barros & R. Rozas

Genetic algorithm for selective maintenance optimization of multi-mission oriented systems
A. Khatab, M. Dahane & D. Ait-Kadi

The CoVeR method for the maintenance of a rail corridor
N. Lyngby & T. Myklebust

A stochastic railway track maintenance model
D.R. Prescott, J.D. Andrews & F. De Rozières

Road network modelling for maintenance planning
C. Yang, R. Remenyte-Prescott & J. Andrews

Block inspection policy for non-series technical objects
A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

Data gathering problem in decision support system for means of transport maintenance processes performance development
T. Nowakowski & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

Decision support system for means of transport maintenance processes performance: A case study of rail buses
K. Bojda, I. Dziaduch, T. Nowakowski & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

3.6 Manufacturing

Reengineering defense products through a risk-based framework: How can maintenance go further?
G.E.C. Barbosa & G.F.M. Souza

Application of data mining in a maintenance system for failure prediction
P. Bastos, I. Lopes & L. Pires

Development of method failure analysis and risk related to industrial lubrication applied in food industry machinery
M. Belinelli & G.F.M. de Souza

(MRL, τ) grouping policy for complex structure systems
H.-C. Vu, P. Do Van & A. Barros

A computerized system for maintenance management of assembly lines
R. Costa, I. Lopes, C. Machado & J.M. Cabral

A predictive maintenance strategy for multi-component systems using importance measure
K.-A. Nguyen, P. Do Van & A. Grall

Some results of Bayesian approach on Brown-Proschan model
T. Nguyen, Y. Dijoux & M. Fouladirad

On the use of predictive information in a joint maintenance and inventory policy
A. Van Horenbeek, L. Pintelon, P. Scarf & C. Cavalcante

Optimal preventive maintenance schedule for single multi-functional machine using a modified reliability-centered method
M. Yu, Y. Zhang, J. Gao & D. Zhang

Performance and risk based service development by means of RAMS+C modeling and analysis
P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

3.7 Nuclear industry

A practical analysis of the degradation of a nuclear component with field data
P. Baraldi, M. Compare, A. Despujols, W. Lair & E. Zio

A stochastic process model for life cycle cost analysis of nuclear power plant systems
J.A.M. van der Weide & M.D. Pandey

3.8 Security

A bivariate delay-time model
M.D. Berrade, P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante

Exploring the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process for maintenance policy selection
A.J.M. Goossens, R.J.I. Basten & L.A.M. van Dongen

An imperfect replacement policy for a periodically tested system with two dependent wear indicators
H.H. Pham & S. Mercier

Simulation based comparison of predictive maintenance policies
T. Tinga & R.H.P. Janssen

4 Mathematical methods in reliability and safety

4.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Fatigue Crack Growth in structures under random spectrum loading: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for parameter identification
M. Corbetta, C. Sbarufatti, A. Manes & M. Giglio

Fuzzy expert aircraft onboard control systems assistant
J. Żurek & N. Grzesik

Solar array reliability assessment considering radiation degradation effects
L. Yi, X. Hengyan, H. Li & L. Yufeng

Reliability assessment of 12N bipropellant thruster system for geostationary satellite
L. Fengchun, L. Yi, X. Hengyan & H. Li

4.2 Chemical and process industry

A case study of a MCS method vs. a Markov method in a RAM analysis of a FPSO unit
C. Lundtofte & S. Solibakke

Markov Chain method in dynamic fault tree with reparable components
O. Yevkin

4.3 Critical infrastructures

Stochastic simulation of AltaRica 3.0 models
M. Batteux & A. Rauzy

Hierarchical Bayesian model for gas transmission network reliability
T. Iešmantas & R. Alzbutas

Non-homogeneous degradation models: A review and some new results
Ch. Paroissin

Water Supply System operation regarding consumer safety using Kohonen neural network
K. Pietrucha-Urbanik & B. Tchórzewska-Cieślak

AltaRica 3.0 project: Compile Guarded Transition Systems into Fault Trees
T. Prosvirnova & A. Rauzy

Model-based safety assessment: AltaRica 3.0 project
T. Prosvirnova, M. Batteux & A. Rauzy

GraphXica: A language for graphical animation of models
T. Prosvirnova, M. Batteux, A. Maarouf & A. Rauzy

Stochastic shock models for degrading infrastructure systems via Phase-Type distributions
J. Riascos-Ochoa, M. Sanchez-Silva & R. Akhavan-Tabatabaei

A hierarchical decision making framework for vulnerability analysis
T. Wang, V. Mousseau & E. Zio

A note on the ratio of the extreme to the root of the sum of squares in sequences of absolute values of Gaussian variables
M.A. Odijk & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

4.4 Energy

Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms
A. Zitrou, T. Bedford, L. Walls, K. Wilson & K. Bell

Critical comparison of two user friendly tools to study Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP): Season 2
M. Bouissou, H. Chraïbi & I. Chubarova

New likelihood based goodness-of-fit tests for the Weibull distribution
M. Krit, O. Gaudoin, M. Xie & E. Remy

Statistical estimation of a POD function
M. Keller & A.-L. Popelin

Failure prediction for monitored systems
B.H. Lindqvist & V. Slimacek

A method of computing the inter-state transition intensities for multi-state series-parallel systems
J. Malinowski

Stochastic modeling of wind turbine drivetrain components
H.M. Rafsanjani & J.D. Sørensen

Failure rate of wind turbines modeled by Homogeneous Poisson Process with covariates and unobserved heterogeneity
V. Slimacek & B.H. Lindqvist

Bounding and estimating failure probabilities in monotonic structural reliability frameworks: First improvements and applications
R. Sueur, A.-L. Popelin & V. Moutoussamy

Mathematical methods and approaches to PFD-calculation by the PDSTool
J. Vatn

4.5 Information technology and telecommunications

Regression modeling of survival data from surgery operations
K. Janurová, R. Briš & L. Martínek

Influence of recovery time on telecommunications network unavailability
C. Tanguy & N. Benameur

Computational commutative algebra for tight network reliability bounds
E. Sáenz-de-Cabezón & H.P. Wynn

4.6 Land transportation

Integrated RAMS analysis methodology: The railway case study
E. Calixto

Methodical approach for analysing different stress factors by means of different usage behaviour on the basis of field data
F. Plinke, C. Guennel, A. Meyna & D. Althaus

Comparison of compound Poisson processes as a general approach towards efficient evaluation of railway safety
J. Braband & H. Schäbe

Selected mathematical functions used for operation data information
D. Valis, L. Zak, A. Walek & K. Pietrucha-Urbanik

Safety measure issues in passenger transportation system performance: Case study
A. Tubis & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

A general continuous time and space approach to the evolution of corrosion in pipelines
E.P. da Silva

4.7 Manufacturing

Interdisciplinarity as a success factor—service and reliability planning integrated in a production model
D. Appel, G. Lanza, K.O. Genssler & N. Stricker

RAPP: A new approach for risk prognosis on technical complex products in automotive engineering
S. Bracke

Statistical analysis of step-down stress accelerated life testing
W. Luo, C. Zhang, X. Chen & Y. Tan

Two sided criteria ranking under uncertainty
M. Rajabalinejad

4.8 Maritime transportation

A model for evaluating performance and reliability of the voluntary maritime rescue system in the Gulf of Finland
F. Goerlandt, F. Torabihaghighi & P. Kujala

4.9 Natural hazards

Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates
O. Morales-Nápoles, A.M. Hanea & D.T.H. Worm

4.10 Nuclear industry

A simple yet efficient acceleration technique for Monte Carlo simulation
M. Bouissou

Component importance for systems with semi-Markov dynamics at steady state: A numerical case study
M. Hellmich & H.-P. Berg

Multi-state physics model for the reliability assessment of a component under degradation processes and random shocks
Y.H. Lin, Y.F. Li & E. Zio

Event trees analysis based on functional decomposition
V. Matuzas & S. Contini

4.11 Security

The influence of initial uncertainties in stochastic degradation modeling
Y. Deng, A. Barros & A. Grall

Semi-formal modeling of risk management process and application to chance management and monitoring
C.A. Schoppe, I. Häring & U. Siebold

Analysis of time evolution of load cycles in steel structures
J. Kracík & P. Skalný

Deterioration process classification using automatic balance between attributes and covariates
X.Z. Wang, E. Grall-Maës & P. Beauseroy

5 Occupational safety

5.1 Chemical and process industry

An innovative tool for choosing the most appropriate risk assessment methodologies
S. Ansaldi, P. Agnello, M. Monti, O. Arcudi & F. Giannini

Bow-tie approach for improved auditing procedures at “Seveso” establishments
P.A. Bragatto, S. Ansaldi, F. Antonini & P. Agnello

Bayesian tools for the prediction of occupational accident statistics based on safety performance indicators
E.C. Marcoulaki, M. Konstandinidou & I.A. Papazoglou

A semi-quantitative risk assessment method in process plants: Huntsman tioxide Europe—Ternate plant experience
S. Muré, G. Camuncoli, P. Loro, M. Demichela & E. Pilone

Economic analysis of occupational risk prevention: A case study in a textile company
D.G. Ramos, P.M. Arezes & P. Afonso

Application of RFID technology for supporting effective risk management in chemical warehouses
P.A. Bragatto, A. Pirone & M.G. Gnoni

5.2 Energy

Occupational risk for wind farms
O.N. Aneziris, I.A.P.A. Psinias & A. Psinias

Safety at the sharp-end: A case study in the gas sector
H. Blazsin, F. Guarnieri & C. Martin

Alcohol, drugs and their possible effects on human performance and offshore safety
A.D. Lauvsnes

Slip, trip and fall accidents in a large forest enterprise
P.A. Tsioras, C. Rottensteiner, K. Stampfer & A.E. Tamparopoulos

5.3 Information technology and telecommunications

The contribution of ontologies to the creation of knowledge bases for the management of legal compliance in occupational health and safety
A.J. Vigneron, F. Guarnieri & B.J.M. Rallo

5.4 Manufacturing

Managing new recruit safety risks: An integrated model
C.D.B. Burt

Serious occupational accidents of non-Dutch workers in The Netherlands
P.H.G. Berkhout, M. Damen, L. Bellamy, M. Mud, H.J. Manuel & J. Oh

Improving OHS through the sharing of knowledge on interventions: Guidelines and future directions for the development of ontology-based theoretical models
D. Masi & E. Cagno

Barriers to OSH interventions in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: An overview of the situation and an exploratory study
D. Masi & E. Cagno

Drivers for OSH interventions in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: An overview and some exploratory evidence
D. Masi & E. Cagno

Development of an instrument to analyze the occupational risk acceptance
M.A. Rodrigues, P.M. Arezes & C.P. Leão

How to balance between compliance to requirements and safe adaption to situations in the construction industry
E. Sandberg & E. Albrechtsen

Safety in construction?
P. Swuste

Advances tools for occupational accidents data analysis for prevention purposes
M. Demichela, G. Baldissone & R. Luzzi

Near-miss and accident event: An integrated analysis in an automotive firm supplier
S. Andriulo, M.G. Gnoni & P. Nardone

5.5 Maritime transportation

Risk assessments, Key Shipboard Operations and soft barriers in offshore operations
B.M. Batalden & A.K. Sydnes

No swans in sight—analyzing the resilience in Norwegian water passenger transport
K.V. Størkersen & J.P. Johansen

5.6 Natural hazards

Probabilistic study of overheating discomfort in residential building
Z. Sadovský, O. Koronthályová, P. Mihálka, P. Matiašovský & K. Mikulová

5.7 Security

A quantitative analysis of health, safety and environment policy in France
A.T. Audiffren, F. Guarnieri, C. Martin & B.J.M. Rallo

OHS certification and legal compliance management in France: A quantitative survey
A.T. Audiffren, F. Guarnieri & B.J.M. Rallo

Alarm detection in noise work environments: The influence of hearing protection devices
N. Costa, S. Abreu & P.M. Arezes

Weighting Table: A broader view for the ergonomic intervention
I.F. Loureiro, C.P. Leão & P.M. Arezes

Control of the industrial risks during the technology transfer: The case of the textile industry of Batna, Algeria
S. Marref, L. Bahmed, M. Djebabra & A. Benoudjit

First overview of the relationship between quantitative dynamic operational resilience and the Dutch Fire Services occupational safety and quality management program Cicero
J.M.P. van Trijp & A. Breur

6 Prognostics and system health management

6.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Prognosis and health monitoring applications in satellite systems
K. Etienne, S. Bosse, T. Laloix & A. Cabarbaye

Methodological issues and pitfalls of short safety culture questionnaires
H.M. Jagtman, F. Koornneef, R. Akselsson & S. Stewart

6.2 Chemical and process industry

Failure vs. deficiency in mechanical systems: Characteristics and clarification of a confusion
M. Pourgol-Mohammad & F.S. Oskouyi

6.3 Critical infrastructures

Dynamic monitoring of safety barriers in petroleum installations
A. Omerovic, A. Refsdal & Ø. Rideng

6.4 Energy

On the limits and possibilities of stress testing for assessing system safety performance in the oil and gas industry
J.D. Khorsandi, T. Aven & J.E. Skogdalen

A stochastic model for competing degradations
S. Mercier, L. Bordes, E. Remy & E. Dautrême

Monitoring the risk picture by using QRA and barrier based indicators
E. Okstad, S. Hauge, R.K. Tinmannsvik & J. Vatn

6.5 Information technology and telecommunications

A case study for fleet-wide semantic based predictive diagnostic
G. Medina-Oliva, A. Voisin, M. Monnin, N. Kosayyer & J.-B. Léger

6.6 Land transportation

Functionality and dependability assurance in massively networked scenarios
J.I. Aizpurua & E. Muxika

RAMS analysis: How reliability engineer and risk analysis tools can be applied to improve asset management on train life cycle
E. Calixto

Extreme learning machines for predicting operation disruption events in railway systems
O. Fink, U. Weidmann & E. Zio

6.7 Manufacturing

A deterioration model for feedback control systems with random environment
D.N. Nguyen, L. Dieulle & A. Grall

6.8 Nuclear industry

Short-term prediction for Nuclear Power Plant failure scenarios using an ensemble-based approach
J. Liu, V. Vitelli, R. Seraoui, F. Di Maio & E. Zio

The development of the MFM Editor and its applicability for supervision, diagnosis and prognosis
H.P.-J. Thunem

7 Quantitative risk assessment

7.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Manual handling operations in an air shipping company: A comparison between risk evaluation methods
C.S. Cattaneo, M. Derudi, G. Nano, R. Rota, S. Copelli, V. Torretta & M. Raboni

ATC sector capacity as a measure of air traffic safety
J. Skorupski

7.2 Chemical and process industry

Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty
B.J.M. Ale, C. van Gulijk, D. Hanea, P. Hudson, P.H. Lin, S. Sillem, M. Steenhoek & D. Ababei

Study on the optimal design for gas detectors using response surface method
K. Baek & T. Lee

Simulating gas blowout in tropical shallow waters: Comparison with the Northeastern Brazilian coast field experiments
F. Leite, M. Silva, M. Araújo, R. Silva & E. Droguett

Key Performance Indicators and Bayesian Belief Network based risk model as a management tool-results from the case study
M. Gerbec & B. Kontić

Left-hand side BBN model for process safety
C. van Gulijk, D.H. Hanea, K.Q. Almeida, M. Steenhoek, B.J.M. Ale & D. Ababei

Risk-based design for implementation of SIS functional safety in the offshore industry
S.T. Kim, K.P. Chang & Y.H. Kim

A GIS-tool for the vulnerability mapping of industrial facilities potentially exposed to volcanic Na-Tech events
G. Ancione, M.F. Milazzo, E. Salzano & G. Maschio

The use of integrals and CFD tools to evaluate the cloud dispersion of flammable and toxic substances leakages
A.M. Schleder & M.R. Martins

The potential of QRA audit tools in industrial fire and explosion protection
A. Leksin, R. Mock & U. Barth

Combining dynamic process simulation and Monte Carlo simulation for risk-based design
Y. Noh & D. Chang

Critical risk factors for LNG regasification terminals
L.F. Oliveira, P. Tavares, C. Felcini & F.L. Brutto

Towards a dynamic risk and barrier assessment in an IO context
N. Paltrinieri, S. Hauge, M. Dionisio & W.R. Nelson

PSA applied to the design of non-nuclear plants
T. Ruiz-Sánchez, P.F. Nelson, J.L. Francois & M.J. Cruz-Gómez

Initial achievements in Norwegian oil and gas industry project to reduce the number of hydrocarbon leaks
W. Røed & J.E. Vinnem

Performance analysis of inorganic materials for fire protection of industrial equipment
F. Argenti, G. Landucci, A. Tugnoli & V. Cozzani

A creative risk analysis algorithm to support the spare part decision
P. Viveros, R. Tapia, E. Johns, F. Kristjanpoller & C. Nikulin

Modelling point-in-time risk: A decision support tool based on work activities and risk influencing events
X. Yang & S. Haugen

Integrated dynamic decision analysis: A method for PSA in dynamic process system
M. Demichela

7.3 Critical infrastructures

Contributions to validation of knowledge based risk models
T. Askeland & D. Häger

Collective water supply systems risk analysis model by means of RENO software
K. Boryczko, I. Piegdon & M. Eid

A federated model for the critical infrastructure resilience and economic loss for the European Union
B. Dorneanu & G. Giannopoulos

Integrated resilience and risk analysis framework for critical infrastructures
R. Filippini & E. Zio

Multidimensional risk assessment of underground electricity distribution systems based on MAUT
T.V. Garcez & A.T. de Almeida

Comparison of 3D visualization options for quantitative risk analyses
R. Kaufmann & I. Häring

Societal consequences of critical infrastructure vulnerabilities: Integrating power system and regional inoperability input-output models
J. Johansson, L. Svegrup & H. Hassel

Presenting a traceability based approach for safety argumentation
V. Katta, T. Stålhane & C. Raspotnig

Review of computer based approaches for modeling and simulating critical infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems
F. Landegren, J. Johansson & O. Samuelsson

Probabilistic model of individual risk considering fire dynamics, controls and failure probabilities of Fire Protection Systems
E. Nachtigall

Simulation-based characterisation of Critical Infrastructure system resilience: Application to a snowfall scenario
B. Petrenj, M. De Ambroggi & P. Trucco

Criteria risk analysis of facilities for electricity generation and transmission
D. Řehák, P. Danihelka & A. Bernatík

Amount of labour of water conduit repair
A. Studziński

A discussion of Basel II and operational risk in the context of risk perspectives
D. Häger & H.B. Vormeland

Risk identification and fuzzy system-based risk analysis for airport projects
Y. Xenidis & N. Gkoumas

7.4 Energy

Multidimensional risk evaluation in natural gas pipelines: Environmental aspects observed through a multicriteria decision model
M.H. Alencar, E.M. Krym, M.F. Marsaro & A.T. de Almeida

Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector based on the ENSAD database: 20 years of experience
P. Burgherr, P. Eckle & S. Hirschberg

Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind
D. McMillan & I. Dinwoodie

An economical FMEA-based risk assessment approach for wind turbine systems
F. Dinmohammadi & M. Shafiee

Probabilistic risk analysis of distributed generation curtailment in a saturated grid
F. Faghihi, P.E. Labeau, J.C. Maun, V. De Wilde, A. Vergnol & F. Dunon

Blowout risk caused by position loss during DP drilling operations
T. Gjerde, H. Chen & M. Haatuft

Power system unit commitment: Probabilistic modeling of generating capacities availability
B. Gjorgiev, D. Kančev, A. Volkanovski & M. Čepin

Quantitative risk analysis applied in well construction and workover: A methodological overview with real cases
C.M.C. Jacinto, P.A. de Almada Garcia & E.A.L. Droguett

Comparison of the resistance to disturbances in development scenarios of the electricity system
J. Augutis, V. Matuzienė & R. Krikštolaitis

Development of a gas transmission network reliability model: A case study
P. Praks & V. Kopustinskas

From generic to plant-specific reliability indicators: A pragmatic sequential methodology
E. Remy, A. Léger, H. Chraïbi, O. Leinen & J.-Y. Ségura

Quantitative Risk Analysis of an LNG terminal using two-step Bayesian analysis
M.A. Ramos & E.A.L. Droguett

A new ‘T-Book’ approach
V.H. Swaling & M. Gudmundson

Risk analysis of production units in a power station using Bayesian networks
M. Sykora, M. Holicky & J. Markova

Principles for dynamic updating and visualization of the risk picture with a QRA-basis
J. Vatn

Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision
L. Walls, J. Quigley, T. Houghton, S. Howick & F. Ackermann

7.5 Information technology and telecommunications

Workflow fault tree generation through model checking
L. Herbert & R. Sharp

A second chance for risk assessment in IT system analysis?
R. Mock, H. Straumann & A. Fischer

7.6 Land transportation

Design-stage QRA for indoor vehicular hydrogen fueling systems
K.M. Groth, J.L. LaChance & A.P. Harris

Risk-informed safety requirement of Platform Screen Doors for Urban Rail Transit System in a mega city
Q. Mahboob, M. Kunze, G. Radczimanowski & J. Trinckauf

Comparison of safety-related decision-making processes in nuclear and railways
H.-P. Berg, S. Griebel & B. Milius

Risk assessment of the road transportation concerning dangerous goods
M. Młyńczak

Risks analysis for assessing safety in railway tunnel
F. De Felice, A. Petrillo & M.G. Gnoni

7.7 Manufacturing

EN ISO 13849-1—new quantitative requirements for functional safety in the machine tool industry
B. Guennel, F. Plinke, A. Meyna, M. Schlummer & H. Moedden

Design of a Human Reliability Assessment model for structural engineering
J. de Haan, K.C. Terwel & S.H.S. Al-Jibouri

Multivariate manufacturing process validation: Risk minimization within high-precision dental tool manufacturing
M. Pospiech, J. Michalski & S. Bracke

Method for the monetary quantification of failure risks in production
M. Plutz, R. Schmitt & T. Jussen

7.8 Maritime transportation

Human fatigue in a ship bridge management team—a Bayesian approach
J. Akhtar & I.B. Utne

ISPS port risk assessment: Getting the most out of the process?
G. Linkmann, E. Holder & F. Motz

Setting goals and functional requirements for Goal-Based Standards (GBS) Safety Level Approach (SLA) for ships
S.M. John & J.E. Ballesio

Safety assessment of alternative to liquid seal in marine vapor control system
B.J. Park, M.S. Ki, H.J. Kang, J. Choi & D. Lee

Integrated oil spill risk analyses as a decision-making tool for response planning
A. Lentz, C. Jürgensen & M. Utko

7.9 Natural hazards

New risk monitoring tools for the construction and erection phase of large industrial projects
A. Baker, E. Salvador, M. Forte, M. Barison & P. Gaiardelli

Non-stationary climatic influence of inter-epidemic periods on Dengue in Brazil
M. Araújo, D. Veleda, P.R.G. Barrocas, F.F.M. Moraes, R. Montagne & E. Lopez

Emergency plans modeling: Toward an assessment tool
C. Girard, E. Piatyszek, P. David & J.M. Flaus

Probabilistic assessment of storage facilities involved in flood events: Damage models development and application
G. Landucci, A. Necci, G. Antonioni, A. Tugnoli, V. Cozzani, D. Gheorghiuc & A. Ozunuc

Model-based risk assessment for schistosomiasis in a Brazilian context
H.O. Duarte, E.L. Droguett, M.C. Moura, E. Gomes, C. Barbosa & V. Barbosa

Vulnerability of infrastructure to Sea Level Rise: A combined outranking and system-dynamics approach
F.N. Tonmoy & A. El-Zein

Assessment of the losses due to business interruption caused by large-scale floods
J. Vilier, M. Kok & R.P. Nicolai

7.10 Nuclear industry

A combination of Gaussian Processes and Principal Component Analysis for prediction of radionuclide migration
F. Cadini, D. Avram & E. Zio

Licensing criteria for particle accelerators categorization
E.L.C. Costa & P.F. Frutuoso e Melo

Update of methods and data for fire PSA in Germany
M. Röwekamp, S. Einarsson, B. Forell, J. Herb & M. Türschmann

Verification of limiting conditions described in technical specification using plant-specific single AOT criteria
Sh. Poghosyan, G. Kanetsyan & A. Amirjanyan

7.11 Security

Phenomena disturbing the Europe security and tasks for future research
D. Procházková

Quantitative risk analysis in radiotherapy using Bayesian networks
A. Reitz, E. Levrat & J.-F. Pétin

8 Safety in civil engineering

8.1 Aeronautics aerospace

PRA based lunar landing buffer risk analysis
J. Wang, L. Li, Z. Cheng, Q. Wu & J. Yang

8.2 Chemical and process industry

Improving proactive major accident prevention by new technology and work processes
E. Albrechtsen, T.O. Grøtan & S. Haugen

8.3 Critical infrastructures

Calibrating shaft and base resistance factors for design of drilled shaft foundations
D. Bach, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder & M.B. Hudson

Risk approach to land reclamation: Feasibility of a polder terminal
K.T. Lendering, S.N. Jonkman & D.J. Peters

Alternative procedures for the assessment of road safety barriers
J. Markova, M. Kalinsky & P. Marek

Open problems in protection of live-giving infrastructures and supply chains
D. Procházková

8.4 Land transportation

On the value of structural health monitoring
M.H. Faber & S. Thöns

Hazards, accidents and events—a land of confusing terms
R. Winther & W. Marsh

8.5 Manufacturing

Applying ALARP in a fire safety analysis in an existing building
A.H. Arnhus

Determining critical factors to avoid failures in the building process
G.W. Dijkshoorn, K.C. Terwel & F.W. Guldenmund

8.6 Natural hazards

FORM-ARS using finite elements for assessment of reliability of clay slopes
M.G. Bverfjord

Economic implications of multi-layer safety projects for flood protection
V. Tsimopoulou, J.K. Vrijling, M. Kok, S.N. Jonkman & J.W. Stijnen

9 Structural reliability

9.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Reliability simulation analysis and experimental validation of spaceborne scanning mechanism
T. Liu, N. Zhang & L. Zhang

Analysis of structural component’s lifetime distribution considered from the aspect of the wearing with the characteristic function applied
J. Żurek, H. Tomaszek & M. Zieja

9.2 Critical infrastructures

Optimal production facility allocation for failure resilient critical infrastructures
Y.-P. Fang, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

Probabilistic assessment of traffic loads on bridges
J. Markova, M. Holicky, M. Sykora & J. Kral

A tail expectation approach for characteristic values
A.E. Tamparopoulos & K. Bergmeister

9.3 Energy

Probabilistic fatigue model for reinforced concrete onshore wind turbine foundations
S. Márquez-Domínguez & J.D. Sørensen

9.4 Land transportation

Comparison of the reliability levels provided by Eurocodes and standards of the Russian Federation
M. Sykora, M. Holicky & V. Nadolski

Probabilistic model for compressive strength of historic masonry
M. Sykora, T. Cejka, M. Holicky & J. Witzany

9.5 Manufacturing

On the sampling frequency of random loadings for fatigue damage calculations
H.W. Cheng, J.Y. Tao, X. Chen & X.L. Liu

Methodology for the lifetime prediction of micro gears dependent on present shape deviations and the material structure
G. Lanza, B. Haefner & J. Gibmeier

Probabilistic reliability assessment of steel structures exposed to fatigue
M. Krejsa

9.6 Natural hazards

Environmental design parameters for events with multiple components
B.J. Leira

The mixed lognormal distribution for a more precise assessment of the reliability of concrete slabs exposed to fire
R. Van Coile, R. Caspeele & L. Taerwe

9.7 Security

Assessing the vulnerability of SMEs: A qualitative analysis
S. Clusel, F. Guarnieri, C. Martin & D. Lagarde

Structural reliability of concrete slabs considering tensile membrane action
R. Caspeele, D. Gouverneur, R. Van Coile, W. Botte & L. Taerwe

10 System reliability

10.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Cost optimization with focus on reliability and system safety
C. Johansson, P. Persson, M. Derelöv & J. Ölvander

Sensitivity analysis using optimal experimental designs for system reliability study of active systems
Y. Li, J. Bös & H. Hanselka

Automatic generation of temporal fault trees from AADL models
N. Mahmud & Z. Mian

10.2 Chemical and process industry

Constant and time-varying failure rates based on field data in a context of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) assessments
T.V. Alvarenga & G.G.G. de Castro

The significance of failure and repair data collection when performing reliability assessment—a practical approach
C.S. Bleser, L.M. Chame & T.V. Alvarenga

Operability is a key parameter to assess the performance of oil and gas developments
V. Borges & C. Hickey

Study on production availability for new subsea production systems based on a large-scale seabed storage tank
I.-H. Choi, Y. Seo, D. Chang & K. Chang

Utilizing supply chain modeling for decision support in the oil and gas industry
S.L. Isaksen, T. Lilleheier & C. Wright

Further comparisons of PFD results for different types of complex SIS with various assessment methods
L.F. Oliveira, F. Brissaud, B. Declerck & S. Eisinger

Investigating the power-law distribution of a chemical installations’ network
G.L.L. Reniers & K. Sörensen

10.3 Critical infrastructures

Assessing software reliability of multistate systems
M. Kristiansen, B. Natvig & R. Winther

Resource redistribution as a mechanism of resilience: Effects of lack of information
V. Lubashevskiy, T. Kanno & K. Furuta

A simulation model for the reliability analysis of smart grid communication network
P. Luo, G. Sansavini & E. Zio

10.4 Energy

Enhanced Fault Tree Analysis and modelling considerations of a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell
M. Whiteley, L. Bartlett & S. Dunnett

Estimating common-cause failure parameters within power system reliability analysis
Z.B. Rejc, M. Cepin & A. Sitdikova

Tackling risk in energy-optimized sensor networks for safety critical applications
H. Dahl-Olsen, A. Østdahl & A. Williamsen

Two-level blackout probabilistic risk analysis: Application to a test system
P. Henneaux, F. Faghihi, P.E. Labeau, J.C. Maun & L. Haarla

Optimal load sharing in a binary multicomponent system where the components have constant or increasing failure rates
A.B. Huseby & O.N. Breivik

Reliable microgrid energy management under environmental uncertainty and mechanical failures: An agent-based modeling and robust optimization approach
E. Kuznetsova, C. Ruiz, Y.F. Li & E. Zio

Hybrid universal generating function for the reliability assessment of multi-state systems under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
Y.F. Li, Y. Ding & E. Zio

Modelling and reliability analysis of energy networks
V. Matuzas, R. Alzbutas & T. Iešmantas

Optimal sizing and allocation of distributed generation for reliable energy distribution accounting for uncertainty
R. Mena, Y. Li, E. Zio, M. Hennebel, C. Ruiz & E. Zio

The application of RAMS to analysis life cycle cost on the operation of power generation
H. Nugraha & N.I. Sinisuka

Predictive control for reliable microgrid energy management under uncertainties
I. Prodan & E. Zio

10.5 Information technology and telecommunications

The information support model for the transport system operation process
K. Bojda

Safety-related system-on-chip architecture for embedded computing applications
A. Hayek, B. Machmur, M. Schreiber & J. Börcsök

Cloud computing service reliability modeling with batch arrivals and retrial queues
P. Diamantopoulos, V.P. Koutras & A.N. Platis

Syntax and semantics of reliability enhanced activity diagrams
M. Kowalski

Overview of the reliability model for HDL in safety related systems
B. Machmur, A. Hayek & J. Börcsök

Deterministic and stochastic dependability analysis of industrial systems using Coloured Petri Nets approach
B. Pinna, G. Babykina, N. Brînzei & J.-F. Pétin

10.6 Land transportation

Modeling a fault tolerant railway system
C. Fecarotti, J.D. Andrews & R. Remenyte-Prescott

Dependability assessment of large railway systems
G. Buchheit, O. Malassé, N. Brinzei & N. Ammad

RAM management for UTO metro line revamping under commercial operation
J. Grangé, G. Donélian & P. Gaufreteau

Epistemic parametric uncertainties in availability assessment of a Railway Signalling System using Monte Carlo simulation
S. Qiu, M. Sallak, W. Schön & Z. Cherfi-Boulanger

Train punctuality model for a selected part of railway transportation system
F.J. Restel

On the definition of functional reliability
I.B. Shubinski & H. Schäbe

Modification and application of an S-shaped reliability growth model
V. Schweizer, J. Juskowiak, M. Bartholdt, P. Zeiler, B. Bertsche & F. Jakob

10.7 Manufacturing

Dynamical modelling and stochastic optimisation for the design of launcher integration processes
C. Elegbede, D. Berard-Bergery, J. Béhar & T. Stauffer

Dynamic reliability analysis of three nonlinear aging components with different failure modes characteristics
G. Manno, A. Zymaris, N.M.P. Kakalis, F. Chiacchio, F.E. Cipollone, L. Compagno, D. D’Urso & N. Trapani

A small-scale experiment on the Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis
U.K. Rakowsky

Probabilistic model checking for reliability and safety analysis of a flexible manufacturing cell
D. Zhang, Y. Zhang & M. Yu

10.8 Maritime transportation

Analysis of operational availability and blowout frequency for offshore drilling system
Y.S. Lee, D.J. Chang, S.H. Han & M.C. Ryu

Estimation of chain production availability for Korean ship-based CCS
Y. Seo & D. Chang

10.9 Natural hazards

Storm power outage prediction modeling
S.D. Guikema, R. Nateghi & S.M. Quiring

10.10 Nuclear industry

Modelling a feed-water control system of a steam generator in the framework of the dynamic reliability
G. Babykina, N. Brînzei, J.-F. Aubry & G. Deleuze

Probabilistic preferences composition for failure mode prioritization in FMEA
P.A.A. Garcia, M.A. Oliveira, I.C. Leal Jr., G.S. Motta & P.F.F. Frutuoso e Melo

Application of ageing PSA model for systems’ risk-informed classification
Sh. Poghosyan, A. Amirjanyan, M. Nitoi & Z. Simic

10.11 Security

Method to determine uncertainty in system reliability estimate based on Bayesian networks
F. Han, Y. Liu & J.G. Wang

Safety management within Task Force Uruzgan: A report of working with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
M. Moorkamp, E.-H. Kramer, C. van Gulijk & B. Ale

A shock and wear system under preventive and corrective repairs
R. Pérez-Ocón & D. Montoro-Cazorla

11 Uncertainty analysis

11.1 Aeronautics aerospace

Are interval probabilities a viable way for quantifying uncertainties?
K. Breitung

11.2 Chemical and process industry

Polynomial Chaos Expansion for an efficient uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of complex numerical models
E. Baştuğ, A. Menafoglio & T. Okhulkova

A study of the treatment of uncertainty in the Quantitative Fire Risk Assessment of offshore installations
B. Chu & D. Chang

Monte Carlo analysis and fuzzy sets for uncertainty propagation in SIS performance assessment
F. Innal & Y. Dutuit

11.3 Critical infrastructures

Resilience analysis for engineered and infrastructure systems under deep uncertainty or emergent conditions
R.A. Francis & B. Bekera

11.4 Energy

Uncertainty modeling in wind power generation prediction by neural networks and bootstrapping
R. Ak, V. Vitelli & E. Zio

On black swans in relation to some common uncertainty classification systems
T. Bjerga & R. Flage

Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by time-varying data analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis
E. Ferrario & A. Pini

An efficient adaptive model for wind speed forecasting
R.-D. Albu, I. Felea, F. Popenţiu-Vlădicescu & I.M. Naghiu

11.5 Information technology and telecommunications

On the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and its implications on reliability and risk analysis
F. Aguirre, M. Sallak, W. Schön & S. Qiu

On the best learning algorithm for web services response time prediction
H. Madsen, R.-D. Albu & F. Popenţiu-Vlădicescu

11.6 Land transportation

Automotive door closing effort uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation method
F.D. Pereira & G.F.M. de Souza

11.7 Maritime transportation

A model for evaluating the security level of a port
R. Riahi, I. Robertson, I. Jenkinson, S. Bonsall & J. Wang

11.8 Natural hazards

A common rationale for global sensitivity analysis
E. Borgonovo, G.B. Hazen & E. Plischke

Response of rescue system to an extraordinary event
K. Chmelikova & V. Adamec

Comparison of seismic hazard values calculated according to selected standards
K. Demjancukova & D. Prochazkova

Line sampling and Fuzzy Interval Analysis for the propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in risk models
E. Ferrario, N. Pedroni, E. Zio & E. Zio

Assessment of criteria important to the choice of flood protection measures in the area
P. Jezkova & M. Senovsky

Prediction of surface meteorological variables in the southwestern tropical Atlantic by support vector machines
I.D. Lins, D. Veleda, M. Araújo, M.A. Silva, M.C. Moura & E.L. Droguett

Bayesian update of the parameters of probability distributions for risk assessment in a two-level hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic uncertainty framework
N. Pedroni, E. Zio, A. Pasanisi & M. Couplet

Adaptive design as an answer to climate uncertainty
H.G. Voortman & H. van der Kolk

11.9 Nuclear industry

Global sensitivity analysis from given data: An application to a model for radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer
E. Borgonovo, F. Cadini & E. Zio

Bayesian probabilistic analysis of a nuclear power plant small loss of coolant event tree model with possibilistic parameters
C.-K. Lo, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

Overall treatment of uncertainties in the context of risk-informed decision-making on Completion Time changes
S. Martorell, M. Villamizar, I. Martón, S. Carlos & A.I. Sánchez

What about totals? Alternative approaches to factor fixing
E. Plischke & E. Borgonovo

An uncertainty importance measure for Thermal-Hydraulics calculations
M. Pourgol-Mohammad & S.M. Hosseini

A preliminary hazard analysis improving the analytical hierarchy process consistency in decision making process for site selection
V.B. Martins, A.L. Sousa & P.L.C. Saldanha

Operational events groups ranking sensitivity analysis
Z. Šimić

Uncertainty distributions and probabilistic safety analysis
A. Volkanovski, D. Kančev & B. Gjorgiev

11.10 Security

Risk management recommendations—an alternative to the 22 July report
Ø. Amundrud, H. Veland & T. Aven

Author index

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