Safety and Reliability, Volume 1
Proceedings of the ESREL 2003 Conference, Maastricht, the Netherlands, 15-18 June 2003
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This volume contains several papers presented in the proceedings of European Safety and Reliability (ESREL) Conference 2003 that represent the current developments in Europe and outside, in the areas of safety, risk and reliability.
Table of Contents
1. Keynote lecture: Living with risk: A management question 2. Keynote lecture: Uncertainty analysis of flood defence systems in the Netherlands 3. Reliability modeling and optimization for distributed fault-tolerant computing systems 4. An analysis of barriers in train traffic using risk influencing factors 5. Exploring an optimal maintenance strategy for repairable assets 6. Analysis of high speed craft accidents 7. CFD simulations to better evaluate technical improvements to reduce fire damages 8. Software reliability and safety: A real case study in the transportation area 9. On the economic value of safety 10. Electronic systems manufacturing: Some aspects of plastic encapsulated microcircuits (PEM) and the evaluation of their reliability 11. Application of Bayesian techniques for corrosion state assessment of reinforced concrete bridge girders 12. Merging cut sets methods and reliability indexes for reliability and availability analysis of highly meshed networks 13. A prospective application of ATHEANA for a research reactor PSA 14. On the hazard rate process for imperfectly monitored multi-unit systems 15. High contrast consumer test: A case study 16. Reviewing the safety management system by incident investigation and performance indicators 17. Estimating the maximum allowable outage time for redundant safety systems of a nuclear power plant - A RAMS application 18. Safe transmission of the end position of a railway switch using a cable with four wires 19. Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis 20. Time consuming commodity flows in transport networks with vertex buffering 21. On the consideration of long-range consequences of decisions 22. Bayesian modelling of failure prediction using maintenance information 23. Establishing a safety culture in a distributed offshore logistics activity 24. Using total process costing to measure self-insurance safety costs 25. Sorting out performance patterns from noise in safety data 26. Full stochastic analysis of a cofferdam 27. Design based safety engineering applied to railway systems, part I 28. Reducing product rejection via a high contrast consumer test 29. Expert judgement methodology for failure anticipation in nuclear power plants 30. CARE.CAME.CAFDE (C3) A new technology for designing high reliable systems at minimum life-cycle cost 31. Application of chance constraint programming to water system control 32. BHDL: Formalization of digital circuits by coupling VHDL and the B method 33. The simulation of emergency dynamic scenarios through HARIA-2, a tool for the planning and analysis of technological emergencies 34. ESACS: An integrated methodology for design and safety analysis of complex systems 35. Integrating fault tree analysis with event ordering information 36. Bayesian estimation of the parameters in safety and reliability models for the subjective priors 37. Cost benefit analysis and flood damage mitigation in the Netherlands 38. Optimization of maintenance cost under asymptotic reliability constraint 39. GIS based emergency management tool for road and rail transport of hazardous materials 40. Methodology for post-incident investigation in process industry 41. Monte Carlo reliability analysis of a safety plant of the Italian Gran Sasso high energy physics national laboratory by means of the MARA code 42. Safety analysis of the prototype plant of ICARUS experiment of INFN - National Laboratory of Gran Sasso 43. Application of Dutch reliability-based flood defence design in the UK 44. Two-stage Bayesian models - Application to ZEDB project 45. A non-parametric two-stage Bayesian model using Dirichlet distribution 46. Unavailability assessment of IFMIF target system 47. Bayesian assessment of corrosion-related failures in steel pipelines 48. On the estimation of return values of significant wave height data from the reanalysis of the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts 49. Graphical models for the evaluation of multisite temperature forecasts: Comparison of vines and independence graphs 50. Risk analysis methods to evaluate aluminium dust explosion hazard 51. Optimization of testing and maintenance schedules 52. An overview of maritime safety assessment trends in a stakeholder perspective 53. New models for measuring the reliability performance of train service 54. Techniques for modelling PSAs for use in risk-informed PSA applications and risk monitors 55. Treatment of natural external hazards in the probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear submarine refit programme 56. Project viability assessment for support of software testing via Bayesian graphical modelling 57. Challenges related to surveillance of safety functions 58. Comparison between two organisational models for major hazard prevention 59. Industrial Areas and Transportation Networks Risk Assessment 60. An integrated quantitative risk assessment of an oil carrier 61. Analysis of random inspection policies 62. A modified moment method in structural reliability 63. Explosive Atmospheres - Implementation of ATEX 137 in the UK 64. Adoption and enforcement: UK CIA guidance on protecting persons in buildings on chemical establishments 65. ARAMIS project: Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments 66. Three years experience of the R&M case 67. Application of various techniques to determine exceedence probabilities of water levels of the IJssel Lake 68. Improving human factors analysis in maritime accident investigation: Proposal for a new classification framework 69. Towards a systematic organizational analysis for improving safety assessment of the maritime transport system 70. Design based safety engineering applied to railway systems, part II 71. Effective risk management of design & construct contracts 72. Risk-NL, The Netherlands quantitative risk analysis tool to quantify and analyse risks involved with storage of ammunition and explosives 73. Consequence assessment of large bomb explosions in urban areas 74. A distribution for modeling dependence caused by common risk factors 75. A general Bayes Weibull inference model for accelerated life testing 76. Concepts of flood risk analysis methodology 77. Assessing the effect of safety management efficiency on industrial risk 78. Data analysis in a study on risk perception in product use 79. Organisational factors and safety performances 80. Maintenance optimization scheme for a periodically tested automatic valve control system 81. Developments of explosion resistant doors and bulkheads 82. Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks by probit analysis 83. Considerations regarding the maintenance management for "k from n" structures 84. On some reliability approaches to human aging 85. Sensitivity studies for a probabilistic analysis of spacecraft random reentry disassembly 86. Experiences from application of model-based risk assessment 87. Dynamic system acquisition and testing tradeoffs 88. Hydrogen fuel cell bus: Operating experience in Italy 89. Risk Management in the pre-design phase of civil structures 90. Processing method of microtremors for local site effect estimation 91. Seismic risk analysis: A method for the vulnerability assessment of built-up areas 92. Reliability prediction using degradation data - A preliminary study using neural network-based approach 93. Comparative quantitative risk assessment of railway safety devices 94. Integrating risk assessments and safety management systems 95. The Halden open Dependability Demonstrator 96. Tripod: Managing organisational components of business upsets 97. Models of ship's traffic flow for the safety of marine engineering structures evaluation 98. Applications of safety and reliability approaches in various industrial sectors 99. Bayes inference for a bounded failure intensity process 100. Simulation of industrial systems 101. A methodology to investigate heavy gas dispersion by water-curtains 102. The collaboration between Arbo-specialists in the Netherlands 103. Improved vessel safety in offshore supply services 104. Investigation of barriers and safety functions related to accidents 105. Psychological rewards and bad risks: The roles of prosocial, antisocial, moral and immoral attitudes, values and beliefs as determinants of individual risk-taking behaviour: A framework for further research 106. The relationship between attitudes and behaviour in terms of smoking and responses to food scares 107. Systematic derivation of safety rules for railway operations 108. Availability optimization by sensitivity analysis of fiber optical network systems 109. A dynamic risk model for evaluation of space shuttle abort scenarios 110. Reliability analyses and observables 111. Industrial evaluation of an adaptive elicitation process to capture engineering knowledge about product design reliability 112. Use of risk acceptance criteria in Norwegian offshore industry: Dilemmas and challenges 113. ARAMIS project: Development of an integrated accidental risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of SEVESO II directive 114. Cognitive prerequisites for safety-informed organizational culture 115. Sensitivity of assessed bridge safety to the method of analysis and site data 116. Using HAZOP for assessing road safety measures and new technology 117. Evaluation of tunnel safety and cost effectiveness of measures 118. Inspection and maintenance decisions based on imperfect inspections 119. A proposal for managing and engineering knowledge of stochastics in the quality movement 120. Comparison of data representation tools for the analysis of complex time-dependant systems 121. A study of an expected RAW importance measure 122. Development of a full power risk monitoring system for the UCN 3, 4 nuclear power plants 123. Analysis of a dynamic system with the stochastics module MCDET and the deterministic code MELCOR 124. Derivation of accident sequence conditions for complex systems using global system behavior model 125. A simple method to evaluate system failure occurrence probability using minimal cut sets 126. Uncertainty analysis of river flood management in the Netherlands 127. Reliability and availability evaluation of systems related to their operation processes 128. Modelling NH3-outflow out of sea-going vessels 129. Coping with uncertainty in sewer system rehabilitation 130. How to approach modelling in a risk analysis 131. Availability modelling of the 3GPP R99 telecommunication networks