Originally published in 1994. This work investigates seasonal fluctuations of US and British short term nominal interest rates, the dollar-sterling exchange rate and short term interest rate differentials between the US and Britain during the period 1883-1913. It finds that during the pre-World War Gold Standard seasonal movements in exchange rates did not tend to offset the seasonal fluctuations in interest rate differentials. It presents a model to explain the fluctuations and outlines two specific empirical investigations, considering the results in the light of more recent historical periods as well.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. The Seasonal Behavior of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates During the Gold Standard – A Review of the Literature 3. The Effect of Seasonal Endowment Fluctuations in a Cash-in-Advance, Optimizing Model 4. An Empirical Investigation of the Seasonal Behavior of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates During the Gold Standard 5. An Empirical Investigation of the Seasonal Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials During the Gold Standard 6. Conclusion