Social and Structural Change
Consequences for Business Cycle Surveys - Selected Papers Presented at the 23rd Ciret Conference, Helsinki
First published in 1998, this wide-ranging and in-depth volume from specialists in economics and statistics examines leading indicators, the timing of cyclical turning points, firm behaviour, financial indicators, economic policy recommendations, transition economies and the service sector in relation to Finland’s bid for European Monetary Union membership.
Table of Contents
Part 1. Leading Indicators. 1. A Leading Indicator of Equipment Investment Demand in the Italian Economy. Paolo Carnazza. 2. A New Look at Promptly Available Leading Indicators. John P. Cullity / Philip A. Kleini. 3. Use of Leading Indicator in a Model-Based Forecast. Henk C. Kranendonk / Cees L. Jansen. 4. An Update of OECD Leading Indicators. Gerald Petit / Gerard Salou / Pierre Beziz / Christophe Degain. Part 2. Timing of Cyclical Turning Points. 5. Confidence and the Macroeconomy: A Markov Switching Model. Roy Batchelor. 6. An Alternative Method to Predict the Business Cycle. Georg Goldrian / Birgit Lehne. 7. The Timing of M-Shaped Growth Cycles of the German Economy. Ernst Helmstädter. 8. Survey on the Timing of Cyclical Turning Points. Rudolf Marty / Bernd Schips. Part 3. Firm Behaviour. 9. Inflation and Asymmetric Output Adjustments: Tests Using Business Survey Data. Robert A. Buckle / John A. Carlson. 10. Production and Price Flexibility with Stock Adjustment: South African Evidence from Survey Data. Daniël Marais / Eon Smit / Willie J. Conradie. 11. Productivity and Prices – Testing the Relationship Using Micro Data. Julian Peters. 12. Forecasting Models for Demand Series of Private Firms – Using Survey Results and Dynamic Methods of Econometrics. Kurt Stock. 13. Survey Results Relating to Changes in the International Competitiveness of Belgian Manufacturing Enterprises. Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen / Chantal Winter. Part 4. Financial Indicators. 14. The Use of the Interest-Rate-Investment Relationship for Business Cycle Forecast: The Case of the South African Economy. Lorraine Greyling / Gerhardus van Zyl. 15. Economic Policies and Business Cycles in Germany. Willi Leibfritz / Alexander Juchems. 16. An Index of Leading Indicators on Inflationary Trends and the Business Cycle. Franz Seitz. 17. Term Structure or Money Growth as Leading Indicator of Inflation: An Empirical Analysis for Germany. Jürgen Wolters. Part 5. Economic Policy Recommendations. 18. Aggregate Demand and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Business Survey Data. Marcella Corsi. 19. Post-Unemployment Wages: Findings Based on the Swiss Labour Force Survey. Monica Curti. 20. A Time Series and Cross Sectional Analysis of Consumer Sentiment and its Components. Detelina Ivanova / Kajal Lahiri. 21. A Microsimulation Approach for Tax and Social Policy Recommendations in the Federal Republic of Germany. Gerhard Wagenhals. Part 6. Transition Economies. 22. Why do the Russian Enterprises Hoard Labour? Sergei Aukutsionėk / Rostislav Kapeliushnikov. 23. Business Cycles in Poland. Zbigniew Matkowski. Part 7. Surveys Covering the Service Sector. 24. First Results of the Ifo Business Survey in the Data Processing Services Sector in Western and Eastern Germany. Joachim Gürtler. 25. Construction of a Confidence Indicator for Retail Trade by the European Commission. Franz-Josef Klein / Guy Lejeune / Anne Roy.