Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics, 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD

Models for Epidemics, 1st Edition

By C A Donnelly, N M Ferguson

Chapman and Hall/CRC

256 pages

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Hardback: 9780849303869
pub: 1999-07-21
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Description

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease," first diagnosed in late 1986, is transmitted through feed, indirect horizontal transmission, apparently maternally and possibly horizontally, through cattle-to-cattle contact or a contaminated environment. With no ante-mortem test yet developed, the only information available about BSE is from case surveillance and a limited number of experiments. Only through careful and rigorous modeling and analysis can reliable estimates of past infection and predictions of future cases be made. The modeling developed for BSE utilizes a range of techniques from statistics, ecology, and demography that is of interest both as a case study and for providing tools for other modeling projects. Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the "state-of-the-art" rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases.

Reviews

"In addition to the obvious value from the assessment of the particular diseases in this book, the authors have laid out a nice template for anyone who is doing a similarly thorough assessment of a complex epidemiological system. For the most part, the book is easily readable by either statisticians or biologists…"

-Technometrics, May 2001

"The book is well written and interesting to read…authors claim that they aim to unify biostatistical and mathematical biology approaches and I think that they meet this aim fairly well."

--David Greenhalgh, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow

"In their 'must-read' book, Donnelly and Ferguson espouse that models of complex disease transmission dynamics should be placed in proper statistical context to ensure robust parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis, and to disallow over-exact fitting to observed data… This well-proofed book has significant appeal for statisticians interested in dynamical modelling of transmission mechanisms, mathematical modellers wanting to employ more rigorous statistical methods, and biological/medical/veterinary scientists who seek a quantitative understanding of BSE and vCJD."

Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000

"A timely book such as this, which is thought-provoking and challenging at different levels, is an excellent addition [number 84] to the series of Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability."

Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000

"The book provides a comprehensive view of BSE modeling as seen from the backroom."

-Nature, January 2000

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

Background and Aims

Overview of the Book

BSE AND vCJD

Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies

Transmission Routes

Incubation Period Distributions

The Genetics of TSEs

The Nature of the Aetiological Agent of BSE

Conclusion

SOURCES OF DATA

Introduction

BSE Case Databases

Demography of British Cattle

The Maternal Cohort Study

Data on Confirmed vCJD Cases

POPULATION MODELS: FORMULATION

Introduction

The Simple Epidemic Process

Introducing Demography

Age-Dependent Susceptibility/Exposure

The Inclusion of Different Transmission Routes

R0 for Systems with Multiple Transmission Routes

Solving the Model

Heterogeneity in Susceptibility

Incidence of Disease

Maximum Likelihood Methods for Back-Calculation

Model Goodness-of-Fit

Confidence and Prediction Intervals

POPULATION MODELS: RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES

Introduction

Distributional Forms

Model Results

Cross-Validation of Disease Parameters

Predictions

Maternal Transmission

Horizontal Transmission

Under-Reporting

Conclusions

INDIVIDUAL SURVIVAL MODELS

Introduction

Maternal Risk Enhancement Models

Analysis of the Maternal Cohort Study

Dam-Calf Pairs from the GB Case Database

Conclusions

MATERNAL RISK ENHANCEMENT MODELS: RESULTS

Introduction

Maternal Cohort Study

The Dam-Calf Pair Data in the GB Case Database

Suckler Calf Data

Conclusions

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CORRELATION AND DISEASE CLUSTERING

Introduction

Spatial Structure of the BSE Epidemic

Clustering of Cases in Holding

At Risk Holdings Model

Probabilistic Clustering Models

Culling Policy Design

Conclusions

Metapopulation Models

Introduction

Holding-Level Survival Models

Stochastic Simulation Models of the BSE Epidemic

Conclusions

PREDICTIONS AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR vCJD

Introduction

Survival Model

Estimation/Scenario Analysis

Determinants of Epidemic Size

Minimum Incubation Period

Epidemic Predictability

Application to UAT Programme Design

Conclusions

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Updated Back-Calculation Analysis of BSE in GB

vCJD Epidemic Prediction

Scrapie Epidemiology

Conclusion

REFERENCES

About the Series

Chapman & Hall/CRC Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability

Learn more…

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
MAT029000
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General
MED028000
MEDICAL / Epidemiology
NAT001000
NATURE / Animals / General