The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.
Table of Contents
Introduction * The End of World Population Growth * Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecasting * Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education * Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human Development * Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture Interactions in Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopia * Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic Examples from Botswana * China's Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Education * Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Change * Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development: from 'Population Stabilization' to Population Balance' * Index
Wolfgang Lutz is leader of the Population at the International Institute for Applied Systems (IIASA) and director of the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. Warren C Sanderson is a professor in the Departments of Economics and History at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and is co-chair of the Department of Economics there. Sergei Scherbov is a senior scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography of Austrian Academy of Sciences and a senior research scholar at IIASA.
'This book makes several important contributions to rigorous thinking about population dynamics in the 21st century.' Jeffrey D Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan 'A valuable synthesis of the methodological innovations applied with remarkable creativity to real and important problems.' Joel E. Cohen, Head, Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University 'It makes for a highly stimulating and challenging read.' Journal of Peace Research 'Provide(s) a new framework for understanding the underlying unity between mortality and fertility rates.' The Futurist 'Technical studies claiming methodological advances' FUTURE SURVEY, May 2004