First published in 1967, Professor Bairoch’s Diagnostic de L’Evolution Economique du Tiers-Monde has gone into four editions, and has brought the author an international reputation.
This English translation is, in effect, another edition based on the latest French text but incorporating much which is not to be found there. The statistical tables have been revised and expanded wherever possible to include figures up to the end of 1972; the bibliography has been specially adapted to include the literature on the subject in the English language; and two new chapters have been written: Chapter 8 on ‘Urbanization’ and Chapter 9 on ‘The labour force and employment’.
It has been Professor Bairoch’s aim in this book to examine the development of under-developed countries (including China) during the present century and through the use of comparative statistics to formulate a diagnosis of their growth. His analysis includes, whenever relevant, a comparison between the present economic progress of Third World countries and that of the developed countries at the time of their ‘take off’. Special attention has also been given to China’s unique path of development.
In the course of his research the author has elaborated several new series. The production of these new series and their integration with existing data make this book a valuable quantitative economic history of the Third World.
LIST OF STATISTICAL TABLES ix
NOTE TO THE ENGLISH EDITION xii
INTRODUCTION 1
1 POPULATION 5
A Changes in population of the under-developed countries from 1900 to 1970 5
B Recent changes and future prospects 8
2 AGRICULTURE 13
A Agricultural production 14
(i) Changes in production up to 1934/38 14
(ii) Changes in agricultural production since 1934/38 16
B Agricultural productivity 21
(i) Method of calculating the index of agricultural productivity 22
(ii) Productivity thresholds 26
(iii) Index of agricultural productivity: Results and comments 29
C Recent changes: A green revolution? 45
3 EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRY 49
A The connexion between the extractive and manufacturing industries 49
B Changes in extractive industry: Causes and consequences 51
(i) Changes in output 51
(ii) Causes of growth in output 54
(iii) The consequences of growth of mining and extraction in under-developed countries 57
4 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 63
A Rates of growth in manufacturing industry 64
(i) All non-communist, under-developed countries 64
(ii) Rate of growth in manufacturing industry by country 72
B Level of development of manufacturing industry 77
(i) General indicators based on the relative position of manufacturing industry 78
(ii) Simple indicators 83
C Agriculture and manufacturing industry 88
(i) Levels of development in agriculture and manufacturing 88
(ii) Changing conditions in agriculture and industry 90
5 FOREIGN TRADE
A General changes in foreign trade 92
B The pattern of foreign trade by commodities 98
C The geographical pattern of foreign trade 101
(i) General changes 101
(ii) The place of the under-developed countries in the foreign trade of the western developed countries 104
D Note on the foreign trade of China 109
6 THE TERMS OF TRADE 111
A The terms of trade 1870–1938 112
(i) Critique of the estimates proving a secular fall in the terms of trade of primary products 113
(ii) Additional proofs of the reality of a secular improvement in the terms of trade of primary products 116
B The terms of trade 1926–1970 122
(i) Changes in the prices of raw materials and manufactures 1926/29 to 1950/54 123
(ii) Changes in terms of trade, 1948–1970 125
7 THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION 135
A The level of literacy and primary schooling 135
B Secondary and higher education 140
8 URBANIZATION 144
A Changes in urbanization 145
B Urbanization and levels of economic development 148
C Causes of urban inflation 151
D Urbanization in China 156
9 THE LABOUR FORCE & EMPLOYMENT 158
A The labour force 158
(i) Past changes and future projections of total labour force 158
(ii) The structure of the labour force by branch of activity 159
B Unemployment and under-employment 165
(i) Rural unemployment and under-employment 167
(ii) Urban unemployment and under-
employment 168
10 MACRO-ECONOMIC DATA 172
A Capital formation and imports of capital equipment 172
(i) Changes in the rate of capital formation 172
(ii) Capital equipment as a share of imports 175
B Financial aid 177
(i) General changes 177
(ii) Geographical distribution of financial aid 182
C Growth and level of per capita product or national income 183
(i) Rate of growth of Gross Product in noncommunist, less-developed countries 183
(ii) Comparisons with developed countries 186
(iii) Mainland China 188 (iv) Changes in per capita income and output 190
11 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 194
POSTSCRIPT (1974) 210
NOTES 211
APPENDIX: SYNOPTIC TABLE 244
BIBLIOGRAPHY 250
INDEX
Biography
Paul Bairoch
