Offshore Structural Engineering Reliability and Risk Assessment

Concept of Probability and Sampling Statistics
Introduction
Reliability and Risk
Types of Uncertainties
Forward Uncertainty Propagation
Bayesian Approach
Rules of Probability
Principles of Plausible Reasoning
Deductive Logic
Deductive Reasoning
Continuous Probability Distribution Functions
Testing of Hypotheses
Simple and Compound Hypotheses
Urn Distribution
Random Variables
Monte Carlo Simulation Method
Importance of Sampling
Directional Simulation
Statistical Theories of Extremes
Modeling of Environmental Loads
Estimate of Distribution Parameters
Exercise

Structural Reliability Theory
Reliability
Variables in Reliability Study
Probabilistic Approach
Reliability Levels
Space of Variables
Error Estimation
Classification of Errors
Reliability and Quality Assurance
Uncertainties Inherent in Design
Uncertainties in System Design of Offshore Structures
Reliability Problem
Reliability Methods
First-Order Second Moment Method
Hasofer–Lind Method
Second-Order Reliability Methods
Simulation-Based Reliability Method
Reliability Estimate Using Higher-Order Response Surface Methods
High-Order Stochastic Response Surface Method
System Reliability
General Systems
System Functions for General Systems
Computing System Reliability
First-Order Estimates

Reliability Analysis
Introduction
Fundamental Analysis
Reliability Bounds for Structural Systems
Application of Structural Codes on Safety
Limit State Functions
Characteristic Value of Basic Variables
Stochastic Modeling
Mechanical Modeling
Mechanical Model and Reliability Coupling
Complexity of Mechanical Model and Reliability
Coupling
Stochastic Process
Gaussian Process
Barrier Crossing
Peak Distribution
Fatigue Reliability
S–N Curve and Fatigue Damage
Estimate of Cumulative Damage
(Linear Damage Hypothesis)
Design S–N Curves
Fatigue Assessment Using Discrete Wave Approach
Simplified Fatigue Assessment Method
Spectral Fatigue Analysis of Offshore Structures
Short-Term Fatigue Damage
Uncertainties in Fatigue Reliability
Lognormal Format for Fatigue Reliability
Tubular Joints: Experimental and Analytical
Investigations
Fatigue Life Estimate of Tubular Joints
Behavior of T Joints under Axial Loads
T Joint under out-of-Plane Bending
K Joints under Axial Loading

Risk Assessment
Introduction
Quantified Risk Assessment
Hazard Identification
Hazard and Operability
HaZop Study Process
Parameters for HaZop Study
HaZop: Advantages and Limitations
Logical Risk Analysis
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
Fault Tree and Event Tree
Fault Tree Analysis
Event Tree Analysis
Cause–Consequence Analysis
Decision Trees
Consequence Analysis
Limitations of QRA
Risk Acceptance Criteria
Risk and Hazard Assessment
Hazard Identification
Selection of Failure Scenarios
Fire and Thermal Radiation
Selection of Damage Criteria
Risk Picture
Individual Risk
Societal Risk
Risk Assessment and Management
Example Problem of Risk
Assessment: Offshore Triceratops

Model Exercise Papers

References

Biography

Srinivasan Chandrasekaran is a professor in the Department of Ocean Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, India. He has more than 25 years of teaching, research, and industrial experience. By invitation of the Ministry of Italian University Research, he was a visiting fellow to the University of Naples Federico II, Italy, for a period of two years. He has published approximately 140 research papers. He is a member of many national and international professional bodies and has delivered many invited lectures and keynote addresses at international conferences, workshops, and seminars organized in India and abroad.

"… one of its kind… links both risk and reliability with application examples to offshore structures … an essential reference book for practicing engineers in offshore engineering."
—Professor Arvind Kumar Jain, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India

"This is a great book on the general subjects of structural reliability and risk assessment for off-shore structures. … a comprehensive presentation of the art and science of the assessment of off-shore structure system reliability."
—Shen-En Chen, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, USA

"… gives a basic understanding of all topics related to reliability and risk assessment of offshore structures using probabilistic methods. Examples dealing with Mathieu’s stability and responses to high sea waves and seismic excitation of TLP tethers enable easy understanding of the fundamental concepts. I strongly recommend this book as an essential reference book for academicians, researchers, engineers and professionals in oil and gas industry, as it is the priority now to extend the life of existing platforms based on scientific calculation of reliability leading to accurate prediction of structural integrity."
—Professor Kurian V. John, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, Malaysia

"…there is much to recommend in this book. In addition to basic applicable theory and procedures for which the book could serve as an appropriate educational tool for the beginner and intermediate reader, there are also more than a few applications particular to offshore structures that are interspersed within the text that appear to serve well to hold the reader’s interest in a sustained manner. I am, therefore, happy to recommend this book not only to students of the subject, but also to researchers and engineers. Readers should find it a very good resource of useful information all in one place, not only to supplement their current knowledge, but also to revisit subsequently as needed."
—Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy, March 2017