The Arab Uprisings that began in 2010 removed four presidents and made more mobilized mass publics an increased factor in the politics of regional states. The main initial problematic of the Arab Uprising was how to translate mass protest into democratization and ultimately democratic consolidation; yet four years later, there was little democratization. This book explores various aspects of this question while, comparing outcomes in three states, Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The introduction by Raymond Hinnebusch explores how far different starting points —the features of the regime and of the uprising--explain these pathways. Morten Valbjørn then considers the consequences of the Arab uprisings for the credibility of rival democratization and post-democratization paradigms. Vincent Durac examines the efficacy of anti-system social movements in challenging regimes but their inability to steer a democratic transition. Joshua Stacher examines the increased violence deployed by more conercive authoritarian regimes to prevent such a transition. Frede´ric Volpi and Ewan Stein examine the conseuences of the relative balance between different kinds of Islamists for outcomes. James Allison then examines the impact of workers’ movements on democratic potentials. Adham Saouli assesses the mobilization of communal identities by ruling elites and counter-elites. Raymond Hinnebusch focuses on the negative impact on democratization of competitive external interference inside the uprising states. In Hinnebusch’s conclusion, the combined effects of the agency of these forces and the political, cultural, and economic contexts in which they operate are summarized. This book was previously published as a special issue of Democratization.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction: understanding the consequences of the Arab uprisings – starting points and divergent trajectories
2. Reflections on self-reflections – On framing the analytical implications of the Arab uprisings for the study of Arab politics
3. Social movements, protest movements and cross-ideological coalitions – the Arab uprisings re-appraised
4. Fragmenting states, new regimes: militarized state violence and transition in the Middle East
5. Islamism and the state after the Arab uprisings: Between people power and state power
Frédéric Volpi and Ewan Stein
6. Class forces, transition and the Arab uprisings: a comparison of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria
7. Back to the future: the Arab uprisings and state (re)formation in the Arab world
8. Globalization, democratization, and the Arab uprising: the international factor in MENA’s failed democratization
9. Conclusion: agency, context and emergent post-uprising regimes
Raymond Hinnebusch is professor of International Relations and Middle East politics at the University of St. Andrews. His works include Egyptian Politics Under Sadat (1985); Syria: Revolution from above (2001) and Syria: From Reform to Revolt: Politics and International relations, edited with Tina Zintl, (2014).