1st Edition

Age, Period and Cohort Effects Statistical Analysis and the Identification Problem

Edited By Andrew Bell Copyright 2021
    248 Pages 70 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

    248 Pages 70 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

    Age, Period and Cohort Effects: Statistical Analysis and the Identification Problem gives a number of perspectives from top methodologists and applied researchers on the best ways to attempt to answer Age–Period–Cohort related questions about society.

    Age–Period–Cohort (APC) analysis is a fundamental topic for any quantitative social scientist studying individuals over time. At the same time, it is also one of the most misunderstood and underestimated topics in quantitative methods. As such, this book is key reference material for researchers wanting to know how to deal with APC issues appropriately in their statistical modelling. It deals with the identification problem caused by the co-linearity of the three variables, considers why some currently used methods are problematic and suggests ideas for what applied researchers interested in APC analysis should do.

    Whilst the perspectives are varied, the book provides a unified view of the subject in a reader-friendly way that will be accessible to social scientists with a moderate level of quantitative understanding, across the social and health sciences.

    Chapter 1. Introduction to Age, Period and Cohort Effects

    Andrew Bell

    Chapter 2. The Pros and Cons of Constraining Variables

    Paula Thijs, Manfred te Grotenhuis, Peer Scheepers

    Chapter 3. Multilevel Models for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

    Andrew Bell and Kelvyn Jones

    Chapter 4. The Lexis Surface: A Tool and Workflow for Better Reasoning about Population Data

    Jon Minton

    Chapter 5. Detecting the ‘Black Hole’ of Age-Period Excess Mortality in 25 Countries: Age-Period-Cohort Residual Analysis

    Louis Chauvel, Anja Leist, and Herbert L Smith

    Chapter 6. Learning from Age-Period-Cohort Data: Bounds, Mechanisms, and 2D-APC Graphs

    Ethan Fosse, Christopher Winship, and Adel Daoud

    Chapter 7. Assessing Factors that Contribute to Age, Period and Cohort Trends

    Theodore R. Holford

    Chapter 8. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Models

    Ethan Fosse

    Chapter 9. Age-Period-Cohort Analysis: What is it Good For?

    Herbert L. Smith

    Chapter 10. The Line of Solutions and Understanding Age-Period-Cohort Models

    Robert M. O’Brien


    Andrew Bell is a senior lecturer in Quantitative Social Sciences at the Sheffield Methods Institute, University of Sheffield, UK.

    "The interplay of lifecycle, history and generation - or age, period and cohort, in humbler terms – is one of the great puzzles in the study of individual and social change. This landmark collection is a major contribution on a topic that reaches from philosophy to social statistics. Don’t be overtaken by time: start reading now!"Professor David Voas, University College London, UK

    "Understanding age, period, and cohort effects is a mainstream concern in all the social sciences. But researchers have struggled with how exactly to approach 'APC' issues. This book provides invaluable, up-to-date methodological guidance."Professor Malcolm Fairbrother, Umeå University, Sweden