Agent-Based Modelling for Criminological Theory Testing and Development addresses the question whether and how we can use simulation methods in order to test criminological theories, and if they fail to be corroborated, how we can use simulation to mend and further develop theories.
It is by no means immediately obvious how results being observed in an artificial environment have any relevance for what is going on in the real world. By using the concept of a "stylized fact," the contributors bridge the gap between artificial and real world. With backgrounds in criminology or artificial intelligence (AI), these contributors present agent-based model studies that test aspects of various theories, including crime pattern theory, guardianship in action theory, near repeat theory, routine activity theory, and general deterrence theory. All six simulation models presented have been specially developed for the book. Contributors have specified the theory, identified stylized facts, developed an agent-based simulation model, let it run, and interpreted whether the chosen stylized fact is occurring in their model, and what we should conclude from congruence or incongruence between simulation and expectations based on the theory under scrutiny. The final chapter discusses what can be learnt from these six enterprises.
The book will be of great interest to scholars of criminology (in particular computational criminologists and theoretical criminologists) and AI (with an emphasis on AI for generative social processes), and more widely researchers in social science in general. It will also be valuable for master's courses in quantitative criminology.
Table of Contents
1 Agent-Based Modelling for Criminological Theory Testing and Development
Charlotte Gerritsen and Henk Elffers
2 Generating crime generators
Toby Davies and Dan Birks
3 Using Agent-Based Models to Investigate the Presence of Edge Effects Around Crime Generators and Attractors
Verity Tether, Nick Malleson, Wouter Steenbeek and Daniel Birks
4 Examining guardianship against theft
Elizabeth R. Groff and Jennifer Badham
5 A Simulation Study into the Generation of Near Repeat Victimizations
Wouter Steenbeek and Henk Elffers
6 Creating a temporal pattern for street robberies using ABM and data from a small city in South East Brazil
Eric Araújo and Charlotte Gerritsen
7 Corruption and the Shadow of the Future: A Generalization of an ABM with Repeated Interactions
Nick Van Doormaal, Stijn Ruiter and Andrew M. Lemieux
8 Agent based modelling for testing and developing theories: what did we learn?
Henk Elffers, Charlotte Gerritsen and Daniel Birks
Charlotte Gerritsen is an assistant professor at VU University Amsterdam, Department of Computer Science.
Henk Elffers is a senior researcher at the Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR) Amsterdam, and professor emeritus at the Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, VU University Amsterdam.
"Agent-Based Modelling for Criminological Theory Testing and Development allows insights into social problems that are not possible using conventional methodologies. This volume brings together some of the best criminological minds working on agent-based modelling right now. As such, this manuscript is destined to help shape the field for years to come."
-Prof. Michael Townsley, Head of School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University
"Agent-Based Modelling for Criminological Theory Testing and Development is a powerful tool and framework for testing and developing criminological theories. This book covers the simulation of crime patterns and the roles of different agents that influence crime patterns, contributed by the leading scholars in the field of crime simulation. It is a must-read for students, scholars and professionals who are interested in the formulation and what-if analysis of criminological theories."
-Prof. Lin Liu, Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati