Upon competition of a ten year research project which analyzes the effect of air pollution and death rates in US cities, Lester B. Lave and Eugene P. Seskin conclude that the mortality rate in the US could shrink by seven percent with a similar if not greater decline in disease incidence if industries followed EPA regulations in cutting back on certain pollutant emissions. The authors claim that this reduction is sufficient to add one year to average life expectancy. Originally published in 1977.

    I: Background and theoretical framework; 1: Introduction; 2: Theory and method; II: Cross-sectional analysis of U.S. SMSAs, 1960, 1961, and 1969; 3: Total U.S. mortality, 1960 and 1961; 4: Disaggregated mortality rates, 1960 and 1961; 5: Effects of occupation mix, climate, and home-heating characteristics, 1960; 6: Suicides, venereal disease, and crime rates, 1960 and 1961; 7: 1969 Replication, further verification, and summary; III: Annual and daily time-series analyses; 8: Cross-sectional time-series analysis, 1960-69; 9: The relationship between daily mortality and daily air pollution; IV: Policy implications; 10: The benefits and costs of air pollution abatement; 11: Summary and conclusion


    Lester B. Lave, Eugene P. Seskin

    'Without doubt, this study is a tour de force... It is a first-rate example of how to use limited information in a theoretically correct manner, making persistently conservative assumptions, to shed light on the economic efficiency of a major public policy.' Journal of Economic Literature