contents
preface 7
note on references, abbreviations and statistical sources and conventions 11
1 THE AMERICAN BUSINESS CYCLE 1945 TO 1967 19
Reconstruction cycle 1945–50 22
Korean cycle 1950–54 27
Peaceful cycle 1955–58 32
Disappointing cycle 1959–61 34
The expansion since 1961 38
The theory of U.S. fluctuations 41
Regular and irregular factors in private spending 48
Government expenditures and fiscal and monetary policy 54
2 LEGACIES OF DEPRESSION AND WAR 60
The depression of the 1930s 60
War 61
The end of the war 62
The sources of household demand 68
The sources of business demand 73
3 RECONSTRUCTION, 1945 TO 1947 78
Inflation 78
Personal income and consumer expenditures 82
Investment 90
The return to equilibrium 97
4 SOURCES OF GROWTH AND CHANGE, 1947 TO 1950 105
Household spending 105
A model of consumption expenditures 114
Business fixed investment 118
Housing 124
The farm situation 127
Trade and the balance of payments 133
5 INFLATION, DEFLATION AND THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT 142
Government expenditures and receipts 142
Monetary and credit policies 151
The total impact 158
Prices and wages 160
6 OUTPUT AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT, 1947 TO 1950 165
Durable goods 171
Nondurable goods 183
Employment 190
7 A MODEL OF THE 1948–49 RECESSION AND REVIVAL 193
Sectors of a simplified model 193
The equilibrium output model 198
The downturn 201
The upturn 205
epilogue
the situation in the middle of 1950 208
notes
A GNP in 1945 and 1946 at 1958 prices 211
B Recent theories of consumption 218
C Consumption expenditures and savings during the war 230
D Demand for automobiles and housing at the end of the war 235
E The stock of business plant and equipment 241
F Inventory investment in durable and nondurable goods, 1945 and 1946 245
G A quarterly consumption function, 1948-50 248
H The automobile market, 1945–50 253
I Determinants of quarterly business fixed investment 258
J Short run determinants of housing starts 268
K Foreign trade elasticities 272
L Inventories, sales and unfilled orders 274 bibliographical note 285
list of references 289
index 297
Biography
Dr. Blyth held the post of Director of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and as author of The Use of Economic Statistics and Deputy Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London. Previously he lectured at Cambridge. He has devoted, several years to the study of the American economy, and this book was completed while he was a Professorial Fellow of the Institute of Advanced Studies, Australian National University.
