The Armed Conflict Survey is the annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all active conflicts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It offers in-depth analysis of the drivers, dynamics and outlook of 34 current armed conflicts along with detailed information on conflict parties and more than 60 full-colour maps and infographics. The Armed Conflict Survey is an essential resource for those involved in security, foreign and humanitarian policymaking, and an indispensable handbook for anyone conducting serious analysis of armed conflict.

    Key features

    · Essays on global trends in armed conflict, with a focus on the changing nature of third-party intervention, the long aftermath of armed conflicts, and economic migration and forced displacement in a COVID-19 world.

    · Overviews of key events and political and military developments from January 2020–February 2021 for each conflict.

    · Strategic analysis of national and regional drivers and conflict outlooks.

    · Regional analyses with unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across regions and globally.

    · Expanded information on conflict parties.

    · The Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator (ACGRI), an IISS proprietary indicator that combines measures of incidence and human impact with geopolitical impact to assess the global salience of armed conflicts.

    · Analysis of the humanitarian, social and economic impact of conflicts.

    · Conflict-specific trends, strategic implications and prospects for peace.

    · More than 60 full-colour maps, tables and infographics highlighting key conflict developments and data.

    · Key statistics on violent events, fatalities, military power, geopolitical salience, refugees and internally displaced persons.

    · The 2021 Chart of Armed Conflict, presenting information on conflict start dates, typologies and relevant refugee flows, as well as providing a visual overview of each conflict’s geopolitical relevance, looking at 2020 UN Security Council resolutions, multilateral missions and the involvement of third-party countries.

    Editor’s Introduction 5
    Notes on Methodology 11
    Global Trends 15
    Interventions in Armed Conflicts:
    Waning Western Dominance 16
    The Long Aftermath of Armed Conflicts 22
    Economic Migration, Forced Displacement
    and Armed Conflict in a COVID-19 World 29
    Conflict Reports 35
    1 Americas 36
    Regional Analysis 36
    Mexico 42
    Colombia 54
    Brazil 64
    El Salvador 74
    Honduras 80
    2 Europe and Eurasia 86
    Regional Analysis 86
    Ukraine 92
    Nagorno-Karabakh 102
    3 Middle East and North Africa 112
    Regional Analysis 112
    Turkey 118
    Syria 126
    Iraq 138
    Israel–Palestinian Territories 150
    Yemen 160
    Libya 172
    Egypt 182
    4 Sub-Saharan Africa 188
    Regional Analysis 188
    The Sahel 194
    Lake Chad Basin 206
    Central African Republic 216
    South Sudan 226
    Ethiopia 236
    Somalia 246
    Democratic Republic of the Congo 256
    Mozambique 268
    Nigeria 278
    Cameroon 284
    Sudan 292
    5 Asia 300
    Regional Analysis 300
    Afghanistan 306
    Pakistan 318
    Kashmir 326
    Myanmar 338
    India–Northeast 348
    India–Central (Maoist) 356
    Thailand 364
    Philippines (NPA) 370
    Philippines (ASG & Moro) 378
    Data Appendix 386
    Index 394


    The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The staff of the Institute is international in composition and IISS work is international in its perspective and reach. The Institute is independent and stresses rigorous fact-based research with a forward-looking policy orientation that can improve wider public understanding of international security problems and influence the development of sounder public policy, and more effective business decisions in the international arena.