1st Edition

China's Low Birth Rate and the Development of Population

By Guo Zhigang, Wang Feng, Cai Yong Copyright 2018
    274 Pages 63 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

    274 Pages 63 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

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    As the most populous country in the world, China’s demographic challenges have always been too many people for ecological system, resources, and the environment. However, by the early 1990s, fertility rate in China had dropped below the replacement level, and China’s low fertility has now attracted the world’s attention.

    This book is among the first studies to raise and examine questions on low fertility in China, believing that China has entered a new era featured by low birth rate and ageing population. Utilizing advanced research methods and models on low fertility to analyze China’s census data, this book explores the issues from various perspectives. Methodologies employed in past population studies, policy making concerning fertility rate, underreporting of births and fertility rate estimates, fertility level of the migrant population, current population pattern, long-term population trends, population dynamics, and many other thought-provoking problems are covered. Finally, the book revisits China’s population issues in the context of globalization. The 21st century has seen the new challenge of persistent population decrease and ageing worldwide, which, along with economic globalization, demands a new understanding of the changes in population pattern and their consequences.

    Researchers and students in China’s demographic and social studies will be attracted by the insightful analysis and rich materials provided in the book. Population policy makers will also benefit from it.

    List of figures.  List of tables.  Foreword to the Chinese Edition.  Acknowledgements  Chapter 1 Research Framework and Research Objectives  Chapter 2 Current Situation of Population Development and Demographic Studies in China  Chapter 3 Study and Discussion on Low Fertility  Chapter 4 Comments on Previous Estimates of Underreporting and Fertility Rates  Chapter 5 Education Statistics and Fertility Estimates  Chapter 6 The "Fertility Rebound" in the 2006 Family Planning Survey was Due to Severe Sample Biases  Chapter 7 Cohort Analysis on Parities and Only Children  Chapter 8 Impact of Population Migration on the Current Fertility Level  Chapter 9 Age-Specific Population Pyramids and Migration to Metropolises and Urban Areas  Chapter 10 Fertility Projection and Future of China’s Population  Chapter 11 Brief Analysis of the Sixth National Population Census and Age-Based Estimates  Chapter 12 Simulation of Population Trend in the Past 20 Years and Forecast of Future Population Based on the Sixth National Population Census   Chapter 13 The Sixth National Population Census Revealed Grave Flaws in Previous Population Estimation and Forecast  Chapter 14 China’s Major Demographic Risk: Excessively Low Fertility and Excessively Fast Ageing  Chapter 15 China’s Population Momentum under Low Fertility  Chapter 16 World Population in the Era of Globalization and China’s Future  Index


    Guo Zhigang is a Professor in the department of sociology, Peking University. His main research interests include population policy, population projection, fertility, etc.

    Wang Feng is a Professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. His specializes in global social and demographic changes, social inequality, etc.

    Cai Yong is an Associate Professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. His research work is focused on Chinese demography, especially China’s low fertility in global context.