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Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning book cover

1st Edition

Cognition and Chance The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

By Raymond S. Nickerson Copyright 2004
472 Pages
by Psychology Press

472 Pages
by Psychology Press

472 Pages
by Psychology Press
Also available as eBook on:
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to... Read more
Contents: Foreword. Probability and Chance. Randomness. Coincidences. Inverse Probability. Some Instructive Problems. Paradoxes and Dilemmas. Statistics. Estimation and Prediction. Perception of Covariation. Choice Under Uncertainty. People as Intuitive Probabilists. Concluding Comments.

Biography

Nickerson, Raymond S.

"This book is an insightful lesson on how one's worldview affects one's thinking, even in certain mathematical applications."

—Journal of Psychology and Christianity

"...the book brings together many diverse sources and results on a host of topics....it could serve as a useful starting point for a new researcher beginning a study of some aspect of quantitative reasoning."
—Technometrics

"...for the newcomer the book provides an excellent introduction to this field of research, and the connoisseur will appreciate the book as a useful handbook allowing for quick refreshers of the many empirical results already available."
—Biometrics

"I liked this book a lot....Nickerson has done a fine job in putting together coherently a wide range of material...this book is remarkably well timed."
—Howard Wainer, Ph.D.
Distinguished Research Scientist, National Board of Medical Examiners

"This book presents a more inclusive report of the literature on probabilistic reasoning, without a specific application in mind, allowing for both broader coverage of the field, and for deeper exploration of inherently interesting and provocative reasoning and problems....The quality of scholarship...is impressive, with...classic citations as well as a diversity of perspectives representing current thinking on the problems....Business school students would probably greatly benefit from this book....As a researcher, I find this book to be a very useful collection of the research on probabilistic reasoning, and would absolutely want a copy for my own library....I could imagine using this text in a graduate or upper level undergraduate course on judgment and decision making."
—Julie Downs, Ph.D.
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University

"It is comprehensive in its approach to scholarship and does not choose a single point of view from among the usual ones. Instead, it offers wise and clever comments on the many different perspectives that exist."
—Jonathan Baron, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania

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