1st Edition

Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

By Walter C. Labys, Peter K. Pollak Copyright 1984

    Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

    1.Commodity Markets and Models 2. Commodity Modelling Methodologies 3. Validation of Commodity Models 4. Commodity Model Applications: Policy Analysis and Forecasting 5. Commodity Model Applications: Market Stabilization Analysis 6. Future Model Developments and Applications 7. Commodity Models Bibliography.


    Walter C. Labys is Professor Emeritus of Resource Economics and Management at Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources & Design, USA. Peter K. Pollak was a Senior Economist and Operations Officer at the World Bank.