Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan

Author

Acknowledgements

Map of Taiwan and its surrounding region

Introduction: Danger, hiding in plain sight

Chapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Why the stakes in Taiwan are so high

The conflict to be deterred

Chapter Two: Deterrence lessons from Ukraine

Eight lessons from Ukraine

Specific implications for China

Specific implications for Taiwan

Specific implications for the United States

Chapter Three: Yardsticks for deterrence

A world in flux

Rationality without MADness

An unstable status quo

Yardsticks for Indo-Pacific deterrence

Chapter Four: Consistent America, inconstant America

Political will: consistency and clarity of deterrence messages

Military capability and coalition credibility

The narrative yardstick

Chapter Five: Taiwan and its predicament

Military resilience

Civil resilience

Narrative clarity

Chapter Six: Coercive China, deterrent China

Deterring an intervention

Controlling the nuclear risk

Controlling the narrative

Chapter Seven: Allies and partners: the role of Japan

Japan, from self-defence to constrained deterrence

Constrained but speedy?

Many unanswered questions

Chapter Eight: The Philippines, Australia and other partners

The Philippines as an unsinkable logistics centre

Australia: far away but now committed

Other allies and bystanders, near and far

ASEAN non-centrality

Limits to the ASEAN way

Dreaming of a more balanced region

Conclusion: Nostalgic for Cold War realism

                    Needed: the good aspect of Cold War diplomacy

Notes

Index

Biography

Bill Emmott is Chairman of the IISS Trustees and an independent writer and consultant. He spent 26 years at The Economist, which he joined in 1980, working as a correspondent and editor in Brussels, Tokyo and London, on subjects ranging from politics to finance, economics and business. In 1993, he was appointed editor-in-chief, a post he held for 13 years before stepping down in 2006.

He is Senior Adviser, Geopolitics for Montrose Associates, Chair of the Japan Society of the UK, an Ushioda Fellow of Tokyo College, University of Tokyo, Chair of the International Trade Institute, a trustee of the Chester Beatty Library, and a member of the Comitato Scientifico of the Centro Einaudi in Turin. He writes for La Stampa in Italy, Nikkei Business and the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan, and occasionally for the Financial Times. He is the author of numerous books on Japan, Asia, Italy and the West, his latest being The Fate of the West (Profile, 2017) and Japan’s Far More Female Future: Increasing Gender Equality and Reducing Workplace Insecurity Will Make Japan Stronger (Oxford University Press, 2020).

‘Will China and the US go to war over Taiwan? How can war be deterred? Bill Emmott gives the clearest answers that I have read to these crucial questions. His work is both comprehensive and readable, as befits a former editor of The Economist.’

Joseph S. Nye, former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School and author of the memoir A Life in the American Century

 

‘Bill Emmott’s insightful exploration illuminates the precarious balance between power and peace in the Indo-Pacific, a strategic region where Europe’s future is also at stake. Emmott is one of our best experts in this area and offers a compelling narrative that combines historical depth with contemporary urgency. This book stands as a crucial guide for navigating the intricate interplay of military strategy, diplomacy and the unyielding quest for stability in a region at the heart of global security.’

Florence Parly, former Minister of the Armed Forces, France (2017–22)

 

‘Bill Emmott has done a masterly job of highlighting the necessity of a sophisticated and comprehensive deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific given the real dangers of Chinese military coercion against Taiwan. His work is particularly profound in warning that we have downplayed the taboo topic of nuclear escalation in a Taiwan Strait crisis even though a US–China conflict would be the first in history between nuclear great powers.’        

Dennis Wilder, former Deputy Assistant Director for East Asia and the Pacific, CIA (2015–16); Assistant Professor of the Practice and Senior Fellow for the Initiative for US–China Dialogue on Global Issues, Georgetown University

 

‘Bill Emmott is correct to describe our task as making war over Taiwan “inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable”. Japan both can and is determined to contribute to this goal by strengthening regional deterrence efforts.’

Ishii Masafumi, former Director for Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan; former Japanese Ambassador to Indonesia