Given the different geographical and human contexts in which climate change impacts will be experienced, thinking by analogy provides one useful way to explore dimensions of such change. This landmark book, based on the human dimensions of global change paradigm, examines climate impacts through the study of a contemporary society's response to a drought period analogous to expected future climate. Bulgaria suffered severe drought from 1982 to 1994, conditions which models suggest better reflects future climate than existing norms. The Center for Integrated Regional Assessment at Penn State and the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences collaborated to research this drought period as an analogy for future climate. This book shows their assessment of what can be learned from the impacts of and responses to contemporary drought in Bulgaria. It therefore makes an important contribution to the literature on regional climate change and methods used to address anticipated impacts of that change.
Contents: The Drought: Introduction, C. Gregory Knight, Ivan Raev, Marieta P. Staneva; Chronology of the drought, Ivan Raev, Marieta P. Staneva, C. Gregory Knight; Drought and future climate, Christopher Steuer and C. Gregory Knight. Climate Change Analogues: Analogues of climate change, C. Gregory Knight, Marieta P. Staneva. Analysis of the Drought: The climate of drought in Bulgaria, Nicola Slavov, Ekaterina Koleva, Vesselin Alexandrov; Drought during the 20th Century, Ekaterina Koleva, Nikola Slavov, Vesselin Alexandrov; The Balkan and European context of the drought, Liem Tran, C. Gregory Knight, Victoria Wesner. Drought Impacts on Water Resources: Water resources during the drought, Strahil Gerassimov, Marin Genev, Elena Bojilova, Tatiana Orehova; The impact of drought on surface water quality, Galia Bardarska, Hristo Dobrev. Drought Impacts on Natural Ecosystems: Impact of drought on natural forest ecosystems, Ivan Raev, Boyan Rosnev; Population dynamics of birds and mammals during the drought, Georgy Markov, Milena Gospodinova, Grigor Penev. Drought Impacts on Managed Ecosystems: Drought impacts on managed forests, Ivan Raev, Boyan Rosnev; Drought impacts on crops, Vesselin Alexandrov, Nicola Slavov; Drought impacts on agricultural pests, Georgy Markov, Orlin Dekov, Maria Kocheva. Drought Impacts on Society: Bulgarian society and the water crisis: sociology and ethics, Georgi Fotev; Influence of Drought on the Bulgarian economy, Nikolay Chkorev, Stefan Tsonev, Stoyan Totev; Health and hygienic aspects of drought, Galina Gopina, Kosta Vasilev, Veska Kambourova, Ilian Dimitrov. From Impacts to Crisis: Water resource management during the drought, Todor Hristov, Rossitsa Nikolova, Stiliana Yancheva, Nadejda Nikolova; Media and political attitudes, Georgi Fotev; The struggle for Djerman-Skakavitsa: Bulgaria's first post-1989 'Water War', Caedmon Staddon. Learning from the Drought: Drought in Bulgaria: what have we learned?, C. Gregory Knight, Ivan Raev.