The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas.
The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.
'This book, republished eight years after its fi rst edition, still deserves to be read because it represents a good example of how the history of economics can be shaped and enriched by the passing of time.' - Alessandro Innocenti, University of Siena
1. From Hayek to Vernon Smith: Prices, the Cobweb and Game Theory 2. The Hart Research Agenda: Information, Anticipation and the Firm 3. Expectations Research Projects: From Illinois to Carnegie Tech 4. Muth, Mills and Tinbergen 5. December 1959 and its Aftermath 6. Patinkin, Expectations and Chicago 7. Expectations and the Monetarist Counterrevolution