Evaluating Climate Change Impacts  book cover
1st Edition

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts

ISBN 9780815392378
Published October 7, 2020 by Chapman and Hall/CRC
394 Pages

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Book Description

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies.

This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

Table of Contents

I Ecosystem Impacts

  1. On Evaluation of Climate Models
  2. Kaibo Gong and Snigdhansu Chatterjee


    A brief tour of climate models

    Evaluation of climate model outputs: summary measures

    Ensemble-based approaches

    Probabilistic model evaluation techniques

    Ensemble using empirical likelihood

    Conclusions and future directions

  3. A Statistical Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Changes
  4. Thomas J Fisher, Robert Lund, and Michael W Robbins



    Statistical methods


    Comments and conclusions

  5. Fire Weather Index and Climate Change
  6. Zuzana Hubnerova, Sylvia Esterby, and Steve Taylor


    Statistical modeling of the fire weather index monthly maxima

    Summary and discussion


  7. Probabilistic Projections of High Tide Flooding for the State of Maryland in the st Century
  8. Ming Li, Fan Zhang, Yijun Guo and Xiaohong Wang




  9. Response of Benthic Biodiversity to Climate-Sensitive Regional and Local Conditions in a Complex Estuarine System
  10. Ryan J Woodland and Jeremy M Testa






  11. Using Structural Comparisons to Measure the Behavior of Complex Systems
  12. Ryan E Langendorf



    Network alignment


    Example: the Chesapeake Bay

    Critical considerations


    Final thought

  13. Causality Analysis of Climate and Ecosystem Time Series
  14. Mohammad Gorji Sefidmazgi and Ali Gorji Sefidmazgi


    Methods of causality detection



    II Socio-economic Impacts

  15. Statistical Issues in Detection of Trends in Losses from Extreme
  16. Weather and Climate Events

    Richard W Katz


    Loss distribution

    Bias, uncertainty, and variability in losses

    Detection and attribution of trends in losses

    Summary and discussion

  17. Event Attribution: Linking Specific Extreme Events to Human-Caused Climate Change
  18. Stephanie Herring

    Why is this chapter in this book?

    Background on event attribution

    Event attribution methodologies

    Impact attribution

    FAR = or "Not possible without climate change"

    Communicating event attribution studies

  19. Financing Weather and Climate Risks in the United States
  20. Roger S Pulwarty, David R Easterling, Jeffery Adkins, and Adam B Smith

    Disasters in the US – the recent record

    Climate and extremes

    Assessing economic impacts

    Insurance and risk financing

    Data and analytical challenges

    Implementation challenges

    Financing mitigation and resilience

    Pathways and conclusion

  21. Extreme Events, Population, and Risk: an Integrated Modeling Approach
  22. Lelys Bravo de Guenni, Desireé Villalta, and Andrés Sajo-Castelli


    Conceptual framework for risk modeling

    Applications of the conceptual framework

    Discussion, conclusions, and future work

  23. Aspects of Climate-Induced Risk in Property Insurance
  24. Ola Haug


    The role of statistics in assessing insurance climate risk

    Water damage to properties in Norway

    The Gjensidige case study

    Climate change and property insurance interactions

  25. Climate Change Impacts on the Nation’s Electricity Sector
  26. Craig D Zamuda


    Climate impacts and implications for the electricity sector

    Resilience approaches and options

    Analytical approaches for assessing costs and benefits

    Gaps and opportunities for improvement in resilience planning

  27. Impacts of InclementWeather on Traffic Accidents in Mexico City
  28. Sophie Bailey, S Marcelo Olivera-Villarroel, and Vyacheslav Lyubchich


    Data description



  29. Statistical Modeling of Dynamic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
  30. Nathaniel K Newlands




    Statistical framework

    Ecosystem dynamical optimization

    Numerical results


    Appendix: model parameters and variables

  31. Agricultural Climate Risk Management and Global Food Security: Recent Progress in South-East Asia
  32. Louis Kouadio and Eric Rahn

    Climate risks management in agriculture

    Current approaches integrating SCFs and crop simulation models

    Examples of integrated SCF-crop modeling approach

    Challenges for operationalizing seasonal climate-crop modeling

    Improved climate risk management in South-East Asia

  33. Poppy Cultivation and Eradication in Mexico : the Effects of Climate

S Marcelo Olivera-Villarroel and Maria del Pilar Fuerte Celis








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The book is an interdisciplinary initiative of statisticians, climatologists, ecologists and oceanographers whose research addresses development and implementation of analytical methodology for assessing climate change impacts. The team includes statisticians V. Lyubchich and Y. R. Gel (statistical and machine learning methods for quantification of the climate-induced risk), climatologist K. H. Kilbourne (paleoclimatology, geochemistry, assessment of the causes of climate variability), fisheries scientist T. J. Miller (effects of ocean acidification on blue crab, recruitment issues in menhaden and striped bass), disaster expert A. B. Smith (analysis of economic and societal impacts of extreme events and natural hazards), and research scientist in food-water-energy nexus N. K. Newlands (sustainability, precision agriculture and risk analysis using machine learning and integrated modeling).