2nd Edition

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry Models for New Product and In-Market Forecasting and How to Use Them

By Arthur G. Cook Copyright 2015

    Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.

    Introduction. The Past and the Present: The inaccuracy of forecasting; Forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry; The present state: influences across functions; The time horizon for the forecast; In summary. The Forecasting Process: Define the forecast; Select a forecast method; Enable analytic insights; Present the results; Final considerations. New Product Forecasting: Tools and methods; New product forecast algorithm; Modeling the market; Forecasting the product; Converting patient to revenue; Final considerations. In-Market Forecasting: In-market product forecast algorithm; Trending historical data; Applying the effects of ex-trend events; Converting trended data into forecast outputs; Final considerations. Thoughts for the Future: Era of revitalization; Create stories, not spreadsheets; Hire a science fiction writer; Holistic forecasting. References. Appendices: Spreadsheets paper over real problems; Forecast techniques; Case study; Case study suggested solutions. Index.


    Arthur G. Cook is a Principal with ZS, a management consulting firm specializing in the pharmaceutical industry. Previously he was Director of Global Forecasting for Syntex Pharmaceuticals. Art has been involved in pharmaceutical forecasting for over 30 years, has worked with many major pharmaceutical companies on their forecasting processes, and has created forecasts for over 150 therapy areas. He has written and presented widely on the subject of forecasting, portfolio management, market research, and pricing for the pharmaceutical industry.